Executive Summary: A Russian raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis on June 27 resulted in deaths, injuries, and allegations of torture. This ignited a severe diplomatic crisis, with Baku accusing Moscow of ethnic violence and launching a criminal investigation. Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been deteriorating since... MORE

Executive Summary: Italy’s increased bilateral engagement with the Georgian Dream government sharply contrasts with broader EU skepticism toward Tbilisi’s democratic backsliding. Rome’s approach is shaped by historical, cordial ties with Russia and its proxies; energy interests; and a sovereigntist outlook that downplays regime type in... MORE

Executive Summary: Badra Gunba, president of the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, has reiterated the region’s intentions to establish a Russian naval base at the Port of Ochamchire on the eastern coast of the Black Sea. Moscow sees this move as essential due to successful Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia faces a deepening power struggle as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly attacks Catholicos Karekin II, the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, intensifying long-standing tensions between the state and the Armenian Apostolic Church ahead of the 2026 elections. The conflict exposes constitutional... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Dream government announced that it will abolish the “Information Center on NATO and EU” on July 1, signaling its growing hostility toward Euro-Atlantic integration and aligning more closely with Kremlin interests. Georgian Dream has sidelined its ambitions for integration into NATO... MORE

Executive Summary Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s recent visit to Hungary, by personal invitation of his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orbán, underlines growing cooperation between Tbilisi and Budapest, as the European Union accuses the Georgian Dream government of suppressing democratic protests and violating human rights. Orbán... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Vietnam established an official strategic partnership during General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Tô Lâm’s May 7–8 visit to Baku, signing major agreements in energy, defense, science, trade, and culture to expand bilateral cooperation. Key economic deals include energy... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia is increasingly turning toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, marking a sharp shift away from its traditional Western allies. Economic ties with these countries have intensified, bringing increased investment, business activity, tourism, and even cultural... MORE

Executive Summary: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned against diplomatic engagement with Georgia’s ruling party without a renewed commitment to democratic norms on May 20, criticizing recent crackdowns on protests, unfair elections, and restrictive laws against non-governmental organizations. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have become vocal... MORE

Executive Summary: The deepening drought in southern Russia is threatening the region and its food production, as well as Moscow’s relationship with neighboring states harmed by the reduced flow of the Volga River into the Caspian Sea. Southern Russia’s drought is having a serious negative... MORE