Executive Summary: September 2024 marks the fourth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War and the first anniversary of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terror operation” against the Armenian separatist contingency in the Karabakh region, and peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing. Baku continues to demand that Armenia... MORE

Executive Summary: The Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute has always been about both Karabakh and regional transit routes, which now center on Zangezur. Addressing this problem is far more difficult than Karabakh because it directly involves not just Baku and Yerevan but all outside powers—including Russia, Iran, Türkiye,... MORE

Executive Summary: Bidzina Ivanishvili, the informal leader of Georgia, made a recent statement promising an apology to puppet regime of so-called South Ossetia controlled by Russiafor the war in 2008, placing the blame for Russia’s war on Georgia itself. The Georgian opposition and general public... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia is increasingly turning to India for military support, making significant purchases of Indian-made weapon systems, including the Akash-1S air defense system, as part of a $2 billion defense partnership signed in 2020. Armenia’s pivot toward India marks a shift away from its... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan reinforced Russia’s ongoing efforts to maintain influence in the South Caucasus, where increased cooperation on food security, labor, and oil production were announced. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments on the Zangezur Corridor ignited tensions with... MORE

Executive Summary: Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth. Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 26, Georgia will hold parliamentary elections that will determine whether the country falls further into Russia’s clutches or turns toward closer relations with the West. The ruling Georgian Dream party accuses Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream has proposed that if it wins the upcoming elections, it would declare Orthodox Christianity as the state religion in Georgia. The move looks to gain the support of the Georgian Orthodox Church, one of the most influential institutions in... MORE

Executive Summary: Baku is currently turning away from the West toward Russia and Iran, angry at Western countries for their support of Armenia and criticism of human rights issues in Azerbaijan, and hopeful that Moscow and Tehran will help achieve its geo-economic and geopolitical goals.... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 31, the Russian border guards deployed to Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport formally ceased operations. The following day, the airport became the sole responsibility of units from the Armenian Border Guard. This withdrawal only applies to the airport. Russian border guards will... MORE