Executive Summary: On February 12, Belarus released three political prisoners, including a U.S. citizen and two Belarusian nationals, signaling an attempt to reset relations with the United States. The releases are part of Belarus’s broader strategy to de-escalate tensions with Western countries, particularly under the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow sees its recent diplomatic engagement with the United States as a sign of progress, with Russian President Vladimir Putin aiming to regain the initiative in peace talks. Russia is anticipating that last week’s Munich Security Conference indicates possible rifts in trans-Atlantic relations... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russian military losses typically have affected Russia and its neighbors at home even more than Russian victories. Moscow is now worried that the ouster of Bashar al-Assad will influence the post-Soviet space and Muslim regions in Russia. To reduce these dangers, the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 29, the Republic of Georgia ceased participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) after the latter demanded new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners. Tbilisi’s exit from PACE threatens its eligibility for EU candidacy. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond with its real capabilities. Russian military analysts push for negotiations by relying on Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC is tempering its criticisms of the United States and other powerful countries in the early part of the Trump administration in a seeming attempt to foster a stable external environment while it continues to enhance its national power. Official PRC media... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, which Moscow views as an attempt by Brussels and Washington D.C. to fully replace it. Armenia’s reliance on Russia for trade complicates the situation. The economic challenges posed by such a... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Federal Security Service border guards left Armenia’s border checkpoint with Iran on December 30. Even though Russian guards will remain elsewhere on the entire stretch of the Armenia-Iran border, it represents further diversification away from Moscow. The European Union Mission Armenia (EUMA)... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 1, Poland took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union, emphasizing the need to strengthen European security to deter Russian aggression. The Visegrád Four Group, a multi-national format to bolster Central European solidarity and security, has become redundant,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE