Executive Summary: Brazil, a strategic partner to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is taking a co-leading role in shaping a regional economic order decoupled from U.S.-centric trade and financial norms. The most consequential outcome of President Lula’s recent visit to Beijing was the signing... MORE

Executive Summary: Desertification control is central to People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) food security strategy, enabling the expansion of arable land and reducing dependence on U.S. agricultural imports amid rising geopolitical tensions. Xi Jinping has shifted the “Three Rural Issues” framework to prioritize grain self-sufficiency... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin remains committed to its policy of confrontation with the West through weakening alliances and financial influence, despite Russia’s ongoing preparations for the potential end of its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow continues to stake its strategy on the expectation that BRICS countries... MORE

Executive Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) faces growing challenges in expanding its influence, as key neighboring states, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, resist full membership. Russia’s geopolitical ambitions through the EAEU are hindered by competing regional forces, particularly the People’s Republic of China’s growing investment... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine and the United States reached a landmark deal on rare earth elements (REEs), with Ukraine allocating proceeds from the future monetization of its mineral resources to fund domestic projects. Washington has emphasized securing REEs and critical minerals from Ukraine in exchange for... MORE

Executive Summary: The South Caucasus has grown increasingly close to the Middle East. One region that stands out is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which looks at the Caucasus as a transit and a land for investments. Tbilisi’s closer ties with the GCC present a... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow introduced a new accounting scheme enabling European buyers to pay for gas in rubles, circumventing U.S. sanctions and using intermediaries and currency exchanges to bypass restrictions.  Russia has expanded its shadow fleet and increased its oil tanker capacity by 70 percent, helping... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has set up a number of offshore innovation bases to acquire technologies in support of its ambitions for technological dominance and national rejuvenation. “Offshore innovation bases” in the PRC, mostly located in special high-tech development zones, collaborate... MORE

Executive Summary: Smuggling, a critical tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to acquire technology to enhance its defense industrial base, is reemerging in the wake of the US Government’s technology controls. Diversion—falsifying the end-user—is another common tactic that the Party has successfully used to... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile expertise to develop modern capabilities, reducing reliance on Western technology and circumventing restrictions on imported weapons while boosting defense self-sufficiency. The relaxation of Western restrictions, particularly the US decision to allow limited use of long-range missile systems... MORE