Executive Summary: Smuggling, a critical tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to acquire technology to enhance its defense industrial base, is reemerging in the wake of the US Government’s technology controls. Diversion—falsifying the end-user—is another common tactic that the Party has successfully used to... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile expertise to develop modern capabilities, reducing reliance on Western technology and circumventing restrictions on imported weapons while boosting defense self-sufficiency. The relaxation of Western restrictions, particularly the US decision to allow limited use of long-range missile systems... MORE

Executive Summary: Facing increasing Russian hostility to Central Asian immigrants, Central Asian countries are instead encouraging their nationals to go to other Asian countries to ensure transfer payments and prevent domestic explosions. These moves are negatively impacting the Russian economy and forcing Moscow to seek... MORE

Executive Summary: The Iran-Armenia gas-for-electricity swap agreement allows both countries to address seasonal energy imbalances while enabling Iran to expand its influence in the South Caucasus region. Iran faces challenges through sanctions, electricity shortages, gas imbalance, and Russia’s dominance in Armenia’s gas market via Gazprom... MORE

Executive Summary: In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War. The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures. Ukraine is advancing its own... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus seeks closer ties with BRICS and aims to become a full member, seeing the organization as a means to support a multipolar world and reduce its dependency on Moscow. While BRICS is not currently expanding its membership, it has introduced a new... MORE

Executive Summary: Baku announced in August its application to join BRICS to align with major developing economies and strengthen political relationships on the global stage. Joining BRICS will create new opportunities for Azerbaijan in the transportation sector. In recent years, Azerbaijan has strived to become... MORE

Executive Summary: Just days before the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Kazakhstan announced that it will likely not consider applying to join the group in the foreseeable future, citing the complexity of gaining membership and the bloc’s future prospects. China and Russia, two key... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, highlighting the continued significance of the organization for Belarusian foreign policy. For Minsk, the CIS is  increasingly attractive, as the logistical semi-blockade on Belarus’s western border has prevented it... MORE