Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: The Xi Jinping–Lee Jae Myung phone call on June 10 signals a tactical thaw after years of strain under Yoon Suk Yeol, reviving “good-neighborly friendship” language and soft power channels Beijing had suspended when Yoon restarted work on deploying the U.S. missile defense... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE

Executive Summary: Türkiye is moving ahead with its first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu in partnership with Russia to expand domestic energy production and meet economic growth. Financing delays and sanctions-related challenges are testing the resilience of the Türkiye-Russia nuclear partnership, as the two countries... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s concerns regarding threats emanating from the Islamic State Khorasan Province and diversions from north-south transit routes have been the driving factors behind Moscow’s rapprochement with the Taliban. Afghanistan and Russia are close to establishing official diplomatic relations, but the Kremlin will likely... MORE

Executive Summary: Hungary hosted an informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) in May 2025, aiming to strengthen Budapest’s strategic positioning between the East and West, diversify diplomatic alliances, and boost the organization’s regional influence in Eurasia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is... MORE

Executive Summary: The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, held on June 18–21, was a showcase of artificial optimism for Russia’s economy, despite most of Russia’s economic sectors outside of the military-industrial complex being in decline. Russian President Vladimir Putin projected optimism about Russia’s economy and... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian analysts have redefined Arctic dynamics within the framework of a global hybrid war, viewing the region as a contested space of economic, military, and cyber confrontation with the West. Moscow now conceptualizes Arctic competition through five “circles,” ranging from Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Dream government announced that it will abolish the “Information Center on NATO and EU” on July 1, signaling its growing hostility toward Euro-Atlantic integration and aligning more closely with Kremlin interests. Georgian Dream has sidelined its ambitions for integration into NATO... MORE

Executive Summary: In response to what Moscow labels the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s militarization of the Arctic, Russia has significantly restructured its Arctic policies. Russia has expanded the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and enacted symbolic legislative and institutional changes to cement federal control... MORE