Executive Summary: Georgia seeks a diplomatic reset with the U.S. President Donald Trump Administration following strained relations due to contested October 2024 parliamentary elections and subsequent protests. The Georgian government accuses an invisible “deep state” of anti-Georgian sentiment in the West and hopes that the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow portrays itself as a constructive actor advocating for economic cooperation in the Arctic and Baltic seas while also conducting an increasing rate of hybrid attacks and engaging in provocative discourse. This double game of cooperation has long marked the Kremlin’s Arctic agenda,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia faces significant economic strain due to declining oil and gas revenues, disrupted supply chains, and falling stock markets, which are exacerbated by global trade disruptions and internal demographic challenges that impact military recruitment. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent envoy Kirill Dmitriev to... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Moscow is drawing Washington into an incremental, conditions-tied process, instead of a quick and unconditional ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The U.S. White House has agreed to “help” Russia mitigate certain Western sanctions—including U.S. ones—that affect Russian agricultural exports. Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Dream has shifted from an initially anti-People’s Republic of China (PRC) stance to embracing the PRC’s development model, formalizing ties through a strategic partnership signed in 2023. Bilateral trade and PRC investment have surged in Georgia, including a free trade agreement, infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war in Ukraine remains in a stalemate, with recent ceasefire hopes fading due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inflexible demands amid negotiations on reducing hostilities in the Black Sea. Moscow has shifted its focus to operations in the Arctic and aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Consultations among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are dealing piecemeal with narrow aspects of a putative ceasefire. Moscow stonewalls the quick, comprehensive ceasefire that the Trump administration pursues. A maritime ceasefire (moratorium on firing at sea) could result in banning Ukrainian naval... MORE

Executive Summary: When an Azerbaijani airliner was shot down over Russian territory last December, chilled relations between Baku and Moscow caused some analysts to expect a collapse in ties and attempts by  Moscow to regain its former influence. Neither outcome is likely. Azerbaijani-Russian relations are... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel announced on March 6 that it is in discussions with the United States to establish trilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan, deepening long-standing ties between Israel and Azerbaijan in security, energy, and diplomacy. This trilateral initiative positions Azerbaijan as a bridge between the Middle... MORE

Executive Summary: Ongoing pressure by Nigerian security services and Sunni militants may be pushing the country’s small Shia population toward Iran. Nigeria’s Shia, who comprise some 1.3 percent of the total population, are likely to be influenced by Iran through members of the Lebanese diaspora... MORE