Executive Summary: On October 14, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) upheld Tbilisi’s claim in the case Georgia v. Russia (IV) and ordered Russia to pay 253 million euros ($295 million) as compensation to Georgian citizens who were affected by the “borderization” process following... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainians are working on establishing practical steps toward post-war justice to further any meaningful opportunities for peace. These steps include agreements and funding on a future special tribunal, local initiatives to empower survivors and preserve the memory of victims, and the creation of... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have expanded their diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation to the point that some in the region have begun to speak of them as a kind of “bloc” in opposition to those led by Moscow and Tehran. The trend reflects their... MORE

Executive Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest and imposed sanctions on Russia for the first time since taking office, reportedly due to Putin’s rejection of a ceasefire in Ukraine. The U.S. sanctions target energy... MORE

Executive Summary: The October 7 Summit of Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) emphasized the organization’s growing role, introducing the OTS+ format to deepen multi-vector foreign policy and advance major initiatives. Leaders discussed enhancing regional security through proposals such as a... MORE

Executive Summary: After fleeing Belarus in 2020, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received unprecedented support from Lithuania and Western partners, including head-of-state-level security and diplomatic privileges. In October, Lithuania downgraded Tsikhanouskaya’s security, citing reduced threats and financial concerns. Public backlash led Lithuania to temporarily reinstate Tsikhanouskaya’s... MORE

Executive Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Budapest to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine during an October 16 phone call that preempted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington. Putin’s phone call yielded a short-term advantage by... MORE

Executive Summary: Kyiv is moving toward more openly backing non-Russian national movements within Russia. It is convinced that such efforts will help it defeat Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and that the decolonization of Russia will ensure Ukraine’s future security. Such moves, which have their origins... MORE

Executive Summary: Western diplomats are coming under unprecedented pressure from the Georgian Dream government, with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kohakhidze accusing EU Ambassador to Georgia Pawel Herczynski of backing an attempt to overthrow the constitutional order. The European Union has categorically rejected and condemned disinformation... MORE

Executive Summary: The U.S.-brokered Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia, has accelerated Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization but triggered domestic backlash in Armenia and concern from Iran and Russia.  TRIPP sovereignty concerns and uncertainty over implementation... MORE