Executive Summary: Officials in Russia and the occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia decried Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s declaration that by 2030, Georgians will once again live with Abkhazians and Ossetians. Georgian Dream officials and propagandists have alluded to a backdoor agreement between... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow says that Western actions in Gotland, Bornholm, and other islands in the Baltic Sea threaten Russian national security and that Russia will soon have no choice but to respond militarily. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly used the logic that Russia wants... MORE

Executive Summary: PRC investments and cooperation in the South Pacific enhance its military reach and ability to monitor strategic regions. This engagement serves not only economic interests but also significant geopolitical and security purposes, particularly in nations along key maritime and aerial routes. There is... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Dream government has announced that a Chinese-Singaporean consortium dominated by the Chinese state won the tender for the construction and management of the strategic Anaklia deep-sea port. The port could drastically change the geoeconomic and geopolitical situation in the region, providing... MORE

Executive Summary: Western efforts to trigger the release of at least 1,559 political prisoners in Belarus, who are forced to endure inhumane conditions and extreme repressions, have flagged since 2020. Belarus’s economic needs in the current geopolitical environment are opening windows to pressure Minsk to... MORE

Executive Summary: The ban on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia significantly disrupts the country’s defense capabilities. Preemptive strikes on Russian assembly areas and air bases would be easier and more cost-effective than countering troops and bombers along the contact line.... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka conducted a state visit to Azerbaijan to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, where they reinforced their close personal bond and chemistry. The strong personal chemistry between Lukashenka and Aliyev appears to uphold the exceptionally close bilateral connections between... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States is closing its uranium market to Russia, a move that could have ripple effects on other Russian industries further disrupting the struggling economy. Russia is expected to seek alternatives to the US market by increasing uranium exports to “friendly” countries... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE