Executive Summary: A new report from two high-end PRC think-tanks details the country’s path to modernization in anticipation of July’s Third Plenum but suggests that any shifts in policy direction will be muted. The report emphasizes the triumph of Chinese-style modernization over the Western model... MORE

Executive Summary: At the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly in April, Belarusian officials confirmed that Russian tactical nuclear weapons had been deployed in Belarus. The new military doctrine of Belarus declares the role of Russian TNWs as an essential component of preventive deterrence against unfriendly states. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war against Ukraine has given Azerbaijan fresh motivation to strengthen relations with Central Asian countries to improve their collective trade, transit, and energy potential. Continued development and increased use of the Middle Corridor is central to Baku’s increased cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing, Bishkek, and Tashkent have been discussing the construction of a joint railway project for almost 30 years, which runs the risk of completely unraveling due to geopolitical and alliance changes in Central Asia. Moscow and Astana are happy with the project’s delays,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russia for its export infrastructure, especially as its Ukrainian options have been closed since Moscow launched the full-scale invasion. Minsk is seeking alternatives to Russian railways by using the still incomplete International North-South Transport Corridor and discussing plans... MORE

Executive Summary: The FSB and other Russian intelligence agencies’ activities have transformed Cyprus into a Kremlin beachhead in Europe, going largely unnoticed. Moscow has long focused on European countries, like Cyprus, that are a part of the European Union but not NATO members, to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described any breakthrough in normalizing relations with Türkiye as “epoch-making” for the region. Armenia has displayed a willingness to take criticism from Türkiye seriously, upsetting many in the Armenian diaspora who fear Pashinyan will make unilateral concessions similar... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to make China the first foreign trip of his new presidential term, signaling his need to reaffirm the strategic partnership. Russia is closely monitoring US-China and EU-China dialogues ahead of the Ukraine peace summit in July, to which... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow hopes the protests in Armenia about the return of four villages to Azerbaijan will spread and force Yerevan to slow its efforts to integrate with the West. The belief that Moscow is backing these protests is having the opposite effect, prompting Yerevan... MORE

Executive Summary: The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a political signal to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost member states and a practical preparation for nuclear escalation. Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory suggests that the Kremlin... MORE