Executive Summary: On January 26, Armenia and Georgia signed a joint agreement establishing a strategic partnership between the two countries. Armenia seeks to reduce its dependency on Russia with the new declaration and become more active in regional transit activities, while Georgia may hope to... MORE

Executive Summary: Both Bashkir and Kazakh nationalists are pressing for greater control over or outright annexation of Russia’s Orenburg Oblast. Russian commentators are calling on Moscow to increase pressure on Astana and expand the Russian military presence in Orenburg to prevent such actions. Opening the... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintain that the “special military operation” continues as planned, that Moscow is open to peace talks, and that “freezing” hostilities would be the best solution for both sides. Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasize the need for more investments in supporting Ukraine and securing... MORE

Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE

Executive Summary: Frustrations in Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow are growing over delays in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations, as key differences remain on unblocking regional transit corridors. Azerbaijan remains committed to opening the Zangezur Corridor, while the Kremlin calls for Russian border guards to oversee administration of... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has proposed a new constitution to address matters of external security and territorial integrity, which continue to hold up peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. Azerbaijan and Armenia have expressed the necessity of unambiguously recognizing one another’s sovereignty... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has asserted that expanding economic integration The population is split between the Russo-centric and “Westernizing” views on independent Belarus, with Belarusians seemingly outgrowing the former while being unable to embrace the latter fully. A clearer view of the two... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian officials have played up China’s interest in potentially investing in the Vostok Oil project, though significant challenges remain. The mega-project looks to enhance Moscow’s geopolitical ties with Asia, elevate the Northern Sea Route’s competitiveness with the Suez Canal, and promote economic growth.... MORE

Executive Summary: Iran has granted Armenia access to its Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports to facilitate Yerevan’s trade access to India. The proposed east-west transit route will serve as a supplemental component of the International North-South Transport Corridor in facilitating greater regional trade. Armenia has... MORE

Executive Summary: China has become Russia’s primary economic partner in helping the Kremlin circumvent Western sanctions, with bilateral trade turnover reaching $225 billion in 2023. Beijing’s supply of dual-use components and critical electronic equipment enhances Moscow’s defense production capabilities. Chinese banks play a key role... MORE