Latest Articles about Foreign Policy

The Kremlin Spells Out Terms of Ukraine’s Surrender (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively trying to involve Ukraine in bilateral political talks without clarifying the purpose of such discussions to present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains. Moscow also aims to... MORE

Moscow’s First Move against NATO Could Take Place in Norway’s Svalbard Archipelago
Executive Summary: Moscow’s first direct attack on a NATO country may come against Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, a possibility that continues to divide NATO on whether a Russian move there would require an Article 5 response. Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because... MORE

Belarus’s Political Dichotomy Continues to Widen
Executive Summary: Belarusian politics are divided into two factions: the Lukashenka regime, with strong ties to Russia, located within Belarus, and the opposition, whose members are largely in exile. The Lukashenka regime continues to rely on Russia economically but has worked to increase trade cooperation... MORE

Multipolar Mirage: The PRC’s Pivot to Europe
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) is looking to promote an “equal and orderly multipolar world.” Part of this entails encouraging strategic autonomy for European nations and the creation of a “non-American West” which is more amenable to PRC interests. High-level diplomatic engagements... MORE

Shifting Discourse Between Xi and Putin On Ukraine
Executive Summary: Across 12 communiques, meeting readouts, and official phone calls between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin since February 2022, the salience of language on Ukraine has reduced, but the substance has hardened. The latest communique includes a statement that “the root causes must be... MORE

Russia and Belarus Hold Joint Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises (Part One)
Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE

Despite Disowning Plan, Moscow Sends Clear Message of Intentions With Baltic Borders
Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE

Armenia and Azerbaijan Step Up Work on Peace Deal
Executive Summary: The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for bilateral negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in April, following the start of the delimitation of the two countries’ shared interstate border. Both sides emphasized that though they still have their differences, some progress has been... MORE

Iranian President’s Death Casts Shadow on Future of South Caucasus
Executive Summary: The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is unlikely to fundamentally change Tehran’s foreign policy approach immediately, but it is already affecting Iranian domestic politics and could eventually affect its relations with the outside world. Any change would likely first be seen first... MORE

Grain Becoming Russia’s Tacit Weapon in Confrontation With the West
Executive Summary: Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the West’s ability to influence critical decisions, such as suppliers of grain. The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to... MORE