Executive Summary: The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support. Russian society has experienced... MORE

 Executive Summary: The Bashkirs are increasingly hearkening back to their heritage of resistance to the central government, leading other non-Russian ethnic minorities to view Moscow, rather than their local leaders, as the problem. Some observers are describing the events in Bashkortostan as a new “Black... MORE

Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: The first sign that Putin would be truly ready for peace negotiations would be discretely initiating contact through intelligence personnel, diplomats, and “useful idiots.” The West should have several signals in mind when considering Putin’s true intentions, as Kremlin messaging could be a... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent developments in Mongolia challenge Moscow’s long-standing assumption that it has sufficient leverage to keep Ulaanbaatar in line with Russian interests. Two of these developments—Russian flight there and interest in Mongolia among Russia’s Buddhist peoples—are probably long-term, disturbing many Russians. The third—Mongolia’s restriction... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The inconsistent explanations of Russian propagandists for Alexei Navalny’s death underscore the Kremlin’s culpability. Silence and a lack of coverage from some prominent propagandists suggest that Moscow fears drawing too much attention to the oppositionist’s death. The Kremlin’s increasing repressions cannot... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets. Navalny’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny died while serving a 19-year sentence in a high-security prison colony. Foreign leaders have directly blamed the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin for his death. Navalny continually challenged the Kremlin, participated in protests, and attempted to run for office despite... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s rhetoric toward Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, has become increasingly hostile since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.  The rhetoric from Russia includes threats of invasion and annexation, reminiscent of the language used toward Ukraine before... MORE