Executive Summary: For the first time, public security authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are targeting Taiwanese military personnel and so-called “Taiwan independence” (台独) forces through a law enforcement framework. Akin to techniques previously used in Hong Kong, the Guangzhou Public Security Bureau... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, harsh sanctions, growing awareness among North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states of Russian intelligence tactics, and enhanced counterintelligence operations have made the Kremlin’s traditional information-gathering methods nearly impossible. Following widespread expulsions of Russian diplomats... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia appears to be intensifying hybrid operations against Moldova, leveraging disinformation and false narratives to portray Western alliances as instigators of conflict while planning destabilization tactics. Moscow has repeatedly tried to destabilize Moldova to allow for pro-Russian regime change. The threat of Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has a long history of engaging in agricultural espionage and, potentially, sabotage in the United States. This is partly to decouple from U.S. agriculture, and partly to achieve food security in the event of a major conflict... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is intensifying its hybrid warfare against Poland through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, while portraying Polish defensive actions as provocations to fuel domestic narratives and justify ongoing hostility. Kremlin propaganda is beginning to shift focus from Ukraine to Poland as an adversary, anticipating... MORE

Executive Summary: In the wake of U.S.–China trade talks in Geneva, Beijing launched a sequenced campaign across Europe—first signaling partnership, then reinforcing its trade credentials through multilateral forums, and finally engaging in targeted bilateral diplomacy. The aim was to present the People's Republic of China... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland announced on May 12 that it will close Russia’s consulate in Krakow after attributing the May 2024 Warsaw shopping center fire to Russian security services, as one of only seven North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to shut down Russian consulates.  Moscow... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s evolving military strategy in the Baltic region is shifting from predictable linear offensives to deceptive and flanking maneuvers, with a possible thrust through southeastern Latvia that could strategically fracture the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Baltic defense. Municipal governance vulnerabilities in Latvia,... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas has a wide range of governmental experiences that give him unique insight into modern political warfare. Among his many overseas postings, Ambassador Bajarūnas served as the Ambassador of Lithuania to Russia and as Deputy Ambassador of... MORE

Executive Summary: The united front operates abroad as a political machine, helping to get people elected by fielding candidates, mobilizing votes, and building power bases. Asian-Americans are growing in numbers yet remain key swing voters. Beijing’s role in shaping the political leanings of this demographic... MORE