Executive Summary: A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has... MORE

Executive Summary: Booming demand for Russians who know Chinese, a product of Putin’s turn to the East, is exacerbating long-standing fears that Moscow will lose control over lands east of the Urals. The flight of Russians from the vast and underpopulated region, combined with the... MORE

Executive Summary: Protests intensified in Georgia after the parliament approved the second reading of the reintroduced Russian-style “foreign agents” law, as police arrested dozens of protesters and several opposition leaders were beaten by unknown assailants. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze refused to visit the United... MORE

Executive Summary: The FSB and other Russian intelligence agencies’ activities have transformed Cyprus into a Kremlin beachhead in Europe, going largely unnoticed. Moscow has long focused on European countries, like Cyprus, that are a part of the European Union but not NATO members, to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow hopes the protests in Armenia about the return of four villages to Azerbaijan will spread and force Yerevan to slow its efforts to integrate with the West. The belief that Moscow is backing these protests is having the opposite effect, prompting Yerevan... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream party organized a march in favor of their foreign agents bill as a response to two weeks of continuous protests against the bill. Western leaders expressed concern for the foreign agents bill, threatening to impose sanctions against Georgia’s ruling... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s agenda in Moldova is an extension of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its policy to re-expand into the intermediate zone between Russia and the West. The Kremlin’s top priority is to derail Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership by replacing the current government... MORE

Executive Summary: Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win or lose the war solely based on what happens at the front, rather, both Moscow and Kyiv seek to bring the war home to the other to gain an advantage. Each has attacked the other with bombs... MORE

Executive Summary: Tens of thousands of Georgians participated in a countrywide protest against the ruling Georgian Dream party’s reintroduction and attempt to pass the repressive and controversial “Transparency of Foreign Influence” law. Georgia’s Western partners have actively supported these protests and warned Georgian officials that... MORE

Executive Summary: Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider the West as its primary military adversary, supported by Russian political analysts shifting their focus... MORE