Executive Summary: Russia has more icebreakers than any other country but far fewer than it needs to ensure passage in the Eastern portions of the Northern Sea Route critical to its trade with China as well as to ensure that the Russian navy can continue... MORE

Executive Summary: Senior Party and government officials have identified overcapacity as a major economic challenge, but state media have instead downplayed or denied its existence, framing concerns from the West as politically motivated. Regional governments have traditionally addressed overcapacity through top-down restrictions, but this strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian officials have begun to address the degrading state of critical civilian infrastructure, particularly heating systems, ahead of the coming winter. The past few years have seen catastrophic incidents leaving many Russians without heat. Russian officials blame numerous sources for these issues—including Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian nuclear company Energoatom and US-based Westinghouse are working on implementing agreements to deploy new AP1000 pressurized water reactors, which have emerged as a key component for the future reconstruction of Ukraine’s energy generation sector. Actual construction is unlikely to start before the... MORE

Executive Summary: Western officials have raised concerns about increased Russian naval and sabotage activity, which could potentially target the global underwater cable network vital for international communication, financial transactions, and trade. Russia’s specialized unit, the Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research (GUGI), possesses a significant fleet... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy has demonstrated its ability to counter the world’s supposed third-best military through innovative weaponry and unmanned naval drones. The use of unmanned systems, particularly drones, has emerged as a critical element in modern naval warfare, with both... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintains that the Russian population overwhelmingly supports the war against Ukraine in the face of an “external enemy.” The potential for protest, however, is growing due to how the war has increasingly disrupted Russians’ everyday lives. Regional protests have yet to... MORE

Executive Summary: New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and... MORE

Executive Summary: As currently planned, Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal will divert water from the Amu Darya river away from Central Asian countries, including those usually referred to as “water surplus” states, as well as China and Russia. Kabul does not participate in any water-sharing accord... MORE

Executive Summary: Over the past two years, Ukraine has weathered Russian strikes on critical targets, and the intensity of Russian missile and air strikes could soon lead to the exhaustion of Ukraine’s missile stocks. As Ukraine’s stocks have dwindled, the effectiveness of air defense has... MORE