Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond with its real capabilities. Russian military analysts push for negotiations by relying on Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly using the Cossack identity to justify its war in Ukraine, portraying them as liberators of Russian land. The Cossack’s use of Orthodox symbolism and historical narratives reinforce their role in neo-imperial mythmaking. The All-Russian Cossack Society highlights Cossack military... MORE

Executive Summary:  Turkmenistan is rapidly expanding and modernizing its military to allow Ashgabat to defend itself against domestic challenges, threats from Afghanistan, and increasing competition on the Caspian, as well as to support its expanded political and economic activity internationally.  While it still lags militarily... MORE

Executive Summary: General Robert Brieger, chairman of the European Union’s Military Committee, proposed a UN-mandated peace-support mission to be deployed in Ukraine following a Russia-Ukraine armistice. The European Union or some of its member states would participate alongside countries from the “Global South” acceptable to... MORE

Executive Summary: The beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration highlights contrasting views of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The West views it as a non-sensical distortion that should be stopped, and Russian President Vladimir Putin views it as a confrontation with the West. The state... MORE

Executive Summary: In Yemen, the internationally recognized government-aligned National Resistance Forces (NRF) are led by General Tariq Saleh, the nephew of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh’s faction holds a critical chokepoint, which prevents the Houthis from seizing the rest of the country’s Red Sea... MORE

Executive Summary: Twan Mrat Naing is the leader of one of the major anti-junta ethnic factions in Myanmar, the Arakan Army (AA). Twan has pushed fairly successfully for a separate Rakhine State under his leadership, either independent or in confederation with a new national government... MORE

Executive Summary: Chaudhry Muneeb Ur Rehman Jatt, better known as Commander Muneeb, is a former al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leader who revolutionized the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) recruitment and propaganda efforts. The close coordination between al-Qaeda and its former leaders and the TTP, reflects... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow finds itself challenged in the Caspian Sea by Kazakhstan, whose naval forces there are better prepared to cope with the sea drying up and whose focus is not distracted by conflicts elsewhere. Kremlin hawks such as Nikolai Patrushev are alarmed and calling... MORE

Executive Summary: On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of... MORE