Executive Summary: Russia’s 2022 invasion triggered a surge in Ukraine’s defense sector, experiencing a 350 percent growth since 2022. Ukraine leads globally in tactical and long-range drones, aiming to become the world’s “drone capital.” Upcoming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven swarms are anticipated to replace one-operator systems,... MORE

Executive Summary: The September 24 Ukrainian naval drone attack on oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse marked the first time that Ukraine has used maritime drones to attack Russian oil industry facilities.   Ukraine’s development of advanced maritime drones like the Magura and SeaBaby have demonstrated... MORE

Executive Summary: The presence of Russian military personnel in Mali has failed to prevent the expansion of the jihadist insurgency into the once-safe central and western regions of the country. Fissures have erupted in Mali’s ruling military junta over issues related to operational cooperation with... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting from overt nuclear brinkmanship to using Russia’s nuclear energy program as a “peaceful” tool of influence, especially through technology transfers to developing countries. Putin’s proposal to extend some terms of the U.S.–Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty... MORE

Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE

Executive Summary: Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has urged his organization to disarm and pursue a negotiated settlement with Türkiye. His role and personal status remain central sticking points. The “terror-free initiative,” promoted by Devlet Bahçeli and President Erdoğan—both longtime PKK... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir Bangladesh (HTB) has taken advantage of weak interim governance to openly campaign for its legalization, as well as stage protests and recruit among students, professionals, and elements of... MORE

Executive Summary: A deadly March 2025 clash in Mastung District in Balochistan ended the uneasy coexistence between the secular Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS–KP). The rivalry creates an opportunity for the Pakistani government to exploit as the two groups dedicate resources... MORE