Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval training drills near Taiwan and surrounding the First Island Chain on December 9–11 did not constitute a full-scale joint exercise but sent a signal to the incoming US administration. Beijing’s power projection demonstration, involving 60 vessels, signals to... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow believes that NATO will not accept Ukraine as a member as long as Russia wages war against it and wants the West to exclude Ukraine from NATO in exchange for “peace” with Russia. Some NATO states are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide... MORE

Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian facilities, as well as an expansion in Russian aggression. Many in Kyiv, Moscow, and the... MORE

Executive Summary: In late July, the Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) claimed responsibility for an attack in Benin outside of its traditional areas of operation. JNIM propaganda from this and another operation in the weeks that followed showed the capture of weapons... MORE

Executive Summary: The loss of a large number of Wagner/Africa Corps fighters in northern Mali on July 28 and the Ukrainian offensive into Russia’s Kursk oblast that occurred a week later appears to have given the paramilitary group an excuse to return to Russia. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Terrorist groups in Pakistan frequently use high-denomination currency to finance their operations. Permitting a large number of high-value notes to be in circulation makes it easy for bad actors to transfer considerable amounts of money without a digital footprint, making illicit activities easier... MORE

Executive Summary: Islamist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), and Islamic State in Hind Province (ISHP), attempted to destabilize India during the legislative elections from April to June with threats, anti-Hindu/anti-democratic propaganda, and terrorist attacks. Most of... MORE

Executive Summary: Iran is supplying the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) of General Abd al-Fatah al-Burhan with drones and other weaponry in its struggle against the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti.” This has given rise to concerns that Tehran desires... MORE

Executive Summary: Smuggling, a critical tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to acquire technology to enhance its defense industrial base, is reemerging in the wake of the US Government’s technology controls. Diversion—falsifying the end-user—is another common tactic that the Party has successfully used to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced that it will more than double the budget for the All-Russian Cossack Society in 2025 at the beginning of November, indicating plans to expand their roles in Russian society, including activities in occupied Ukrainian territories. Cossacks are being integrated into... MORE