Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced its decision in December 2024 to deploy the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) to Belarus. Minsk, however, does not have complete information about the deployment parameters. One missile regiment of Russian Strategic Missile Forces equipped with 8 to 12 Oreshnik... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted two live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea in February without providing customary notification to Australia or New Zealand and causing at least 49 civilian aircraft to divert course. The Tasman Sea drill was designed to demonstrate the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is ramping up its military efforts—despite discussions of a ceasefire—with speculation about a second wave of mobilization. New Cossack battalions and expanded funding suggest a growing paramilitary force, indirectly increasing Russia’s mobilization potential. Several recent developments indicate that Moscow is preparing for... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin faces a serious shortage of police officers amid rising, increasingly violent crimes that are predicted to only worsen with the return of veterans of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are taking things into their own hands as well as... MORE

Executive Summary: Investigations of Hezbollah’s financing network over the last several years have identified three major funders of the terror group: Mohammad Bazzi, Talal Chahine, and Nazem Ahmad. The arrest of the former two and the destruction of the third’s network is expected to significantly... MORE

Executive Summary: Md Shamin Mahfuz, the founder of Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS), a prominent jihadist group in Bangladesh loyal to al-Qaeda, was arrested in June 2023. Despite the successful arrest of many JAFHS leaders and militants, the group remains a threat, especially given... MORE

Executive Summary: Hafiz Gul Bahadur is a Pakistani militant who has been active in the region since 9/11. Bahadur has a network of affiliates, called the “Hafiz Gul Bahadur group,” which has been involved in a series of attacks on Pakistani forces over the past... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has significantly increased its investment in artificial intelligence (AI), allocating a substantial portion of its state budget toward AI-driven military research. This funding aims to enhance Russia’s technological edge in modern warfare, particularly in AI-enabled military applications. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Cook Islands signed two agreements in February that extend Beijing’s engagement in the South Pacific to include deep-sea exploration and dual-use maritime infrastructure. Beijing seeks to overcome U.S.-imposed containment in the Pacific. The Cook Islands... MORE

Executive Summary: On the third anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Western countries imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, banking institutions, and defense industry, reinforcing efforts to weaken its war capabilities. Western sanctions aim to curb Russia’s financial and military strength, primarily... MORE