Executive Summary: Moscow officials and churchmen fear Chisinau will follow Kyiv and ban the Russian Orthodox Church in Moldova. Both they and pro-Moscow groups there are using concerns about that in their campaign against the re-election of Moldova’s pro-Western leader. Russian fears are not only... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian state-run media outlets, such as RT, have transformed their disinformation campaigns in the West to adapt to local situations, exerting subtle influence on domestic media to conduct a more covert operation. Moscow is increasingly utilizing embedded propaganda by funding foreign media voices,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin was propelled into power amid a series of deadly terrorist attacks in Russia in the 1990s. His tactics to combat this “war on terror” are being used today against Ukraine. In the 1990s, Russian propaganda and a boost to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia aims to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, largely to justify higher military spending. The Kremlin, however, faces difficulties achieving this target, as the war in Ukraine continues to cause tremendous casualties, rapidly depleting Russia’s supply of manpower.  Despite stable... MORE

Executive Summary: Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth. Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 26, Georgia will hold parliamentary elections that will determine whether the country falls further into Russia’s clutches or turns toward closer relations with the West. The ruling Georgian Dream party accuses Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream has proposed that if it wins the upcoming elections, it would declare Orthodox Christianity as the state religion in Georgia. The move looks to gain the support of the Georgian Orthodox Church, one of the most influential institutions in... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has established the Maritime Collegium of the Russian Federation, which will focus on the preservation of Russia’s naval power, specifically in the Arctic and along the Northern Sea Route. International cooperation in the Arctic and China’s central role are significant components... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little initiative in combating Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, instead defining Russia’s defense as a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine has succeeded in altering the narrative of Russia’s dominance in the war, sending a shockwave into Russian society,... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence. For now, Yerevan has... MORE