Latest Articles about politics
Multi-Prong Peace Offensive Pushes Putin Into Corner
Executive Summary: Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is taking steps to engage in this summer’s peace talks, while China... MORE
PRC Support Underpins Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Executive Summary: PRC aid to Russia is multidomain and underpins much of Moscow’s ability to continue to wage war in Ukraine. Attempts have been made to institutionalize the Sino-Russian relationship, deepening the military aspect in particular. The relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin nevertheless... MORE
Ukrainian Mobilization Becomes Increasingly Urgent
Executive Summary: Ukrainian mobilization will be necessary to repel a possible Russian offensive in the coming summer, but a draft mobilization law is currently being held up in Ukraine’s parliament. Such uncertainty has a negative impact on Ukrainian society, opening the way to various manipulations... MORE
Georgia’s Ruling Elite Encourages Russia and Fights Western Influence
Executive Summary: The Georgian government has again introduced a bill on foreign agents that follows the model of similar Russian legislation, specifically targeting nongovernmental organizations and Western donors. The initiative will play a central role in the approaching October parliamentary elections, as Georgian Dream hopes... MORE
Gagauzia Plans to Declare Independence If Moldova Pursues Unity With Romania
Executive Summary: Gagauzia, a small Christian Turkic and pro-Russian autonomous region, says it will exercise its right to secede and form an independent state if Moldova becomes a part of Romania. Chisinau’s pursuit of EU membership and its increasing pressure on Gagauzia, Moscow’s desire to... MORE
The Russian Opposition After Navalny’s Murder
Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death and the specter of increased hopelessness in Russia’s regions have highlighted growing apathy among the Russian opposition. Supporters of “post-Russia” movements are searching for alternatives to Putin’s Kremlin that differ significantly from the long-standing Moscow-centrist model. The next Kremlin crisis... MORE
Lukashenka and the Nuances of Belarusian Nationalism
Executive Summary: Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the... MORE
Moscow Will Only Consider Absorbing South Ossetia Amid a Georgian Rapprochement With NATO
Executive Summary: South Ossetia wants to join Russia for at least the fourth time now but will not hold a referendum until Moscow agrees. The Kremlin’s decision rests less on the situation in South Ossetia than on how such an action would affect its relations... MORE
Putin Lights a Gagauz Fuse Under Moldova (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia can use the Gagauz autonomy more effectively than Transnistria to destabilize Moldova. The Kremlin is interested in Gagauzia remaining part of Moldova rather than seceding to maintain influence over Moldovan politics. Encouraging Gagauzia to demand upgrades in its autonomy is... MORE
Putin Lights a Gagauz Fuse Under Moldova (Part One)
Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the Gagauz autonomy leader, Yevgenia Gutsul, shows Moscow advancing from covert to overt interference in Moldova’s politics. Emboldening Gagauz leaders to confront Chisinau reflects the Kremlin’s new strategy of territorial fragmentation in Moldova. Moscow is encouraging Russophile... MORE