Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE

Executive Summary: Sa'ad bin Atef al-Awlaki was recently named head of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). An effective leader, al-Awlaki is expected to further entrench al-Qaeda in Yemen, while also positioning himself and AQAP as especially important contenders for leading affiliates within al-Qaeda. Little... MORE

Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE

Executive Summary: A July 19 Iranian drone strike killed a Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK) fighter in Iraqi Kurdistan, prompting retaliatory attacks by PJAK in Iran’s Baneh and Sardasht regions and signaling a breakdown in the 2011 ceasefire. PJAK has emphasized it will not... MORE

Executive Summary: The Sultan Suleiman Shah Division ("Amshat") and Hamza Division ("Hamzat") have resisted integration into Syria’s new military hierarchy post-Assad, maintaining direct financial and logistical ties to Turkey. The groups appear to be continuing to serve Ankara’s strategic interests, deploying them as a proxy... MORE

Executive Summary: Mazloum Abdi is the commander-in-chief of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and a major player in Syria’s new political environment. Abdi is expected to continue to use his support among the country’s Kurdish population and close relationship with the United States as leverage... MORE

Executive Summary: Saw Chit Thu is a warlord active in Karen State in southeastern Myanmar. Thu’s Karen Border Guard Force controls a stretch of the Thai–Myanmar border. Once an ally of the ruling junta, Thu appears to have switched sides after witnessing the rebels’ military... MORE

Executive Summary: Thadiyantavide Nazeer is a key Islamic extremist associated with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan and India’s homegrown jihadist group, Indian Mujahedeen (IM), and has been under arrest since 2013. Nazeer has managed to use his time in prison to radicalize others and was... MORE

Executive Summary: Captain Rahman Gul, the Baloch Liberation Army’s second-in-command, is thought to be behind the group’s turn toward sophisticated suicide attacks in recent years. A poet and former member of Pakistan’s security forces, Rahman Gul provides his group with both military training and effective... MORE