Since the start of 2022, two unexpected “black swan” events have indirectly altered last year’s calculus regarding the expected evolution of the Belarusian political crisis. First, Belarus joined the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) intervention in Kazakhstan on January 5, 2022. Second, Belarusian potassium... MORE

In early January, the sudden outbreak of massive anti-government protests in Kazakhstan and subsequent intervention by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) reverberated across the entire post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan. These events on the other side of the Caspian Sea are of great importance... MORE

Two seemingly unrelated developments are worrying officials in the South Caucasus, Russia and the West. On the one hand, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the opening of a transit corridor between Azerbaijan and its non-contiguous Nakhchivan autonomy are growing, the result of Armenia’s failure... MORE

On November 26, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for the second time since the end of the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020). The meeting took place at the initiative of the Russian government in a similar way to the last trilateral... MORE

Last September, long-brewing strains between Iran and Azerbaijan reached an unprecedented level, resulting in the deployment of troops and large-scale military drills by both sides. The most immediate trigger was the Azerbaijani authorities’ arrest of two Iranian truck drivers on Armenia’s Goris–Kapan highway (which partially... MORE

As a part of its Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese plans to construct a railway from Xinjiang through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan and onward to Turkmenistan has been under discussion for two decades. If realized, the railway would transform the geopolitical situation in the region. This... MORE

Late last month (October 26), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, together inaugurated the Fuzuli International Airport, in Azerbaijan’s recently liberated city of Fuzuli, in Karabakh. This is the first airport built by Azerbaijan in the areas retaken as a... MORE

Although many observers assumed that the recent uptick in tensions between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan (see EDM, October 6) would die down following the telephone calls between Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov (Al Jazeera, October 13),... MORE

On October 15, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, in an online summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), declared his country’s readiness to provide both railway and highway connection to Azerbaijan, via southern Armenian territories, that would link mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of... MORE

With the emergence of China and other manufacturing powerhouses in Asia that constantly seek access to new markets, the Caucasus has become attractive as a transit route for the movement of goods between the two parts of the Eurasian continent. Georgia (and by extension Armenia)... MORE