Executive Summary: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has made another move to subordinate Ingushetia (a neighboring republic within the Russian Federation) by organizing talks intended to create a Chechen-controlled muftiate in Ingushetia.  Kadyrov’s efforts to gain leverage over Ingushetia may be initially successful because of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was based on flawed assumptions, such as expecting Ukrainian surrender and Western non-interference. These miscalculations have backfired, as Ukraine's determined resistance and commitment to sovereignty, as well as support from Western partners, have thwarted the Kremlin’s original plans.... MORE

Executive Summary: Abkhazia, a break-away territory controlled by Russia, is preparing for decisive presidential elections on February 15, which could determine the future trajectory of the separatist region’s foreign policy and relationship to Moscow. Russia is supporting pro-Moscow candidate, former vice-president Badra Gunba, in the... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia and Belarus signed two security-related documents in December 2024 that deepen Belarus’s integration within Russia’s geopolitical influence and obligate the Belarusian leadership to participate in military conflicts alongside Russia, similar to the latter’s agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian government, led by the Georgian Dream party, is implementing stringent new media censoring laws that ban foreign financing and introduce regulations for journalistic ethics. Critics fear Georgia's hard-won free media is endangered as these moves signal the erosion of democratic values... MORE

Executive Summary: As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, the Ukrainian government faces the challenge of boosting its troubled defense procurement and defense industry to lessen dependence on outside assistance and meet the country’s growing defense needs. Tensions reportedly rose between the director... MORE

Executive Summary: Control of access to rare earth minerals that are critical for the development of technologies is a driver in the strategic thinking of Western powers, as well as the People’s Republic of China and Russia.  Recent developments in Central Asia highlight the growing... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is reviving the Cold War-era Balaklava submarine base in Crimea as it faces frequent and precise maritime strikes from Ukrainian forces. The base’s outdated dimensions, however, prevent it from housing modern submarines, limiting its strategic value and forcing Russia to reposition key... MORE

Executive Summary:  Afghanistan has completed over 80 percent of the second phase of the Qosh Tepa Canal—an irrigation project funded by the Taliban aimed at ensuring the country’s grain self-sufficiency by utilizing water from the Amu Darya River. The canal could divert up to 20... MORE

Executive Summary Sources close to the Kremlin have indicated that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “special military operation,” is nearing its inevitable end as resources for further offensive actions are running low. Part of the radical nationalist segment of the Russian population refuses... MORE