Executive Summary: At the end of 2024, the United States imposed financial sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire and the informal leader of Georgia, for undermining democratic processes and enabling Russian influence. The sanctions included freezing select assets and restricting transactions. Opposition leaders welcomed the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia remains at the forefront of global nuclear innovation, leveraging state-owned enterprise Rosatom to expand partnerships, build reactors, and strengthen relationships with non-Western nations. This gives Moscow more avenues to bolster its economy amid Western sanctions. Rosatom is currently conducting $200 billion in... MORE

Executive Summary: In advance of his sham re-election, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka has launched an expanded campaign against Roman Catholics, the 14 percent of his nation who have been the most opposed to the Minsk strongman in the past. Moscow has joined this effort to... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest in Türkiye’s energy sector, strengthening bilateral ties and allowing Baku to expand its influence in Europe and the Middle East. SOCAR is critical in meeting Türkiye’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Abkhazia is experiencing an energy shortage due to low water levels in the Enguri hydroelectric dam. Illegal cryptocurrency mining further exacerbates the shortage, which has increased Abkhazia’s reliance on Russian electricity. In September, Abkhazia blocked a law allowing Russian citizens to buy real... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.  Growing economic and political integration is... MORE

Executive Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Greenland and Canada highlights the emerging strategic rivalry in the Arctic. Russian commentators present this as a new justification for its territorial expansionist ambitions in the Arctic and beyond. Russian experts see Trump’s focus on the Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow finds itself challenged in the Caspian Sea by Kazakhstan, whose naval forces there are better prepared to cope with the sea drying up and whose focus is not distracted by conflicts elsewhere. Kremlin hawks such as Nikolai Patrushev are alarmed and calling... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic regime faces global condemnation due to its war against Ukraine, suppression of the opposition, and increasing international isolation. These developments expose the regime’s corruption and deepen its global alienation. Russia’s influence is eroding in key regions, including the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Federal Security Service border guards left Armenia’s border checkpoint with Iran on December 30. Even though Russian guards will remain elsewhere on the entire stretch of the Armenia-Iran border, it represents further diversification away from Moscow. The European Union Mission Armenia (EUMA)... MORE