Latest Eurasia Daily Monitor Articles
RUSSIA’S ENERGY CONUNDRUM — LONG TERM BENEFIT OR SHORT TERM GAIN?
The recent Belarus-Russian row over oil transit masks a deeper problem. The end consumer, the European Union, is now heavily reliant on Russian energy imports, for better or worse, and is hostage to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hardball tactics with Russia’s neighboring former Soviet republics.... MORE
POLITICAL CHANGES IN TURKMENISTAN OPEN NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR AZERBAIJAN
The sudden and unexpected death of Turkmenistan’s President Saparmurat Niyazov (Turkmenbashi) on December 21, 2006, has opened a window of opportunity for both domestic reforms and changes in Turkmenistan’s relations with its neighbors. Azerbaijan, being one of the closest neighbors, could greatly benefit from this... MORE
BELARUS PRESIDENT YIELDS TO RUSSIA ON THE OIL TRANSIT TERMS
On January 10, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenka informed his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by telephone that Belarus was canceling as of that day the transit tax on Russian oil en route to Europe. Minsk had introduced the oil transit tax on January 1 in response... MORE
NEW GOVERNMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN HERALDS NO RADICAL CHANGES
The resignation of Kazakh Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov caused little public reaction when it was announced on January 8. The demise of the Akhmetov era had been rumored throughout 2006, as the Kazakh government had briefly resigned last January following the December 2005 presidential elections,... MORE
UKRAINE’S DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN PROSPECTS FOR 2007
Ukraine’s domestic and foreign prospects in 2007 depend upon the resolution of the political and constitutional crisis that began in 2006. Failure to resolve this ongoing crisis will lead to stagnation and a possible retreat from some of the gains of the Orange Revolution (see... MORE
OIL SUPPLY CUTOFF TO BELARUS AND EUROPE SHAKES RUSSIA’S REPUTATION FOR RELIABILITY
Conclusive evidence emerged on January 9 that Russia halted oil exports to European Union countries via Belarus during the night of January 7-8. Moscow seeks to force Belarus to accept Russian-imposed terms for oil supplies to Belarus itself as well as for the transit of... MORE
PRESIDENTIAL WHIMS AT ROOT OF RUSSIA-BELARUS OIL DISPUTE
Last month's acute conflict between Moscow and Minsk over natural gas prices has carried into the New Year as an oil-pricing dispute. This week the transport of oil through the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline system from Russia to Europe has been disrupted (see EDM, January 8,... MORE
YUSHCHENKO FACES NATO REFERENDUM PROBLEM
Signatures have been collected in Ukraine in favor of holding a referendum on membership in NATO and the Single Economic Space -- a loose economic union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has confirmed that the signatures are valid. Pro-Western President... MORE
RUSSIA-BELARUS STANDOFF MAY BEGIN AFFECTING OIL TRANSIT TO EUROPE
Deliveries of Russian oil via Belarus to points West suffered several brief interruptions during January 5 through 8, causing a slight decrease in the volumes scheduled for delivery to Poland and Germany. The problem has arisen following Minsk’s introduction of a transit charge for Russian... MORE
ARREST OF ARMENIAN “COUP PLOTTERS” RAISES QUESTIONS
Armenian authorities claim to have thwarted a coup d’etat that was allegedly planned by hard-line nationalists opposed to major concessions to Azerbaijan in the conflict over Karabakh. Two prominent veterans of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war were controversially arrested last month and now look set to stand... MORE