Executive Summary: Since the beginning of Russia’s war in 2022, Ukraine has been rapidly transitioning from importing arms to producing them domestically and is working toward becoming a significant player in the global arms market. Ukraine is expanding its production capacity for critical technologies such... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast on August 12, the Kremlin has continued to delay its response, while Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has threatened further escalation if Ukraine does not halt its advances. Rumors indicate that Russia and Belarus may conduct joint... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and, more recently, its equally illegal absorption of Ukraine’s Donbas oblast illustrates the lack of respect Moscow has for Ukraine as a separate state. Kremlin officials are openly talking about changing all Ukraine’s current borders,... MORE

 Executive Summary: Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won reelection in a hard-fought runoff, followed on the heels of an equally hard-fought referendum. The voting underscored chronic divisions in Moldovan society in both political and territorial terms. Russia and its local sympathizers seek to rehabilitate “Moldovan... MORE

Executive Summary: The October 26 parliamentary elections in Georgia are highly contested, with the ruling Georgian Dream party facing allegations of vote rigging. The party denies these claims, asserting the elections’ accountability, transparency, and legitimacy. Georgia’s path to Euro-Atlantic integration is uncertain due to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has used various measures short of a new mobilization to fill the ranks of its dwindling army in Ukraine and appears ready to force protesters into the army and send them to fight. In Dagestan, a republic that has often been bellwether... MORE

Executive Summary: Cooperation between Iran and Russia has improved incrementally since 2022, especially in the military sphere. The two countries are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement toward the end of this year.  Moscow and Tehran have faced challenges due to Western sanctions and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian industrial output index comparing January–September 2024 to January–September 2023 is 104.4 percent, demonstrating economic growth when considering the data in rubles. The inflation of the ruble makes it seem as if the Russian military-industrial complex is growing. However, when considering these... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is leveraging the United States’ preoccupation with its presidential election to advance its strategic interests, bringing in additional military support from North Korea with the arrival of North Korean troops and supplies. This alliance benefits both parties, as North Korea gains technological... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s continuing population decline means it will soon not have enough people to run its economy and fight in its wars. Russian President Vladimir Putin is talking ever more about falling fertility rates but doing little to decrease the increasingly high mortality rates.... MORE