Executive Summary: Russia has proposed a pause of the fighting in Ukraine in exchange for strategic arms and space negotiations with the West.  The Russian armed forces have been taking Soviet-era arms out of storage as a solution to its dwindling supply of weapons despite... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow fears that Armenia may demand that Russia pull its border guards from Yerevan’s international airport and close its military base at Gyumri, following Armenia’s suspension of its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Kremlin worries about losing influence in Armenia.... MORE

Executive Summary Belarus’s new military doctrine appears to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about the role of tactical nukes, lower-ranking officials hint at provisions for preemptive nuclear strikes against... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia is experiencing the effects of Russia’s soft power through the presence of pro-Russian organizations, media outlets, and parties that assert closer ties to Moscow will settle disagreements between the two countries. Recent polls have indicated that a significant segment of Georgian society... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts that participants of the “special military operation” should be viewed as the new elite of Russia and participate in the governing the country to sustain support from those on the front. The Kremlin will be forced to show... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: Polish farmers object to the EU Green Deal and the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products into Europe, which they assert will harm the domestic agricultural market. The protests are exacerbating already turbulent Ukrainian-Polish relations, a development that Russian propaganda could attempt to exploit... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is being forced to postpone and effectively cancel some of its highest-priority transportation projects in the Russian North due to its war against Ukraine. These moves limit Russia’s ability to extract and export natural resources and support the Northern Sea Route, even... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Mission in Armenia (EUMA) marked its first anniversary in Armenia on February 20 with its presence facing several challenges from Baku and Moscow. The European Union and Armenia regard EUMA as a crucial confidence-building measure to increase international support for shifting... MORE