Executive Summary Russian hybrid attacks targeting critical undersea infrastructure (CUI), particularly fiber-optic cables, have surged in the Baltic and Arctic regions since 2021. These disruptions threaten essential communication channels and expose the vulnerabilities of Northern Europe’s infrastructure. Incidents in 2023 and 2024 involving Chinese vessels... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is planning extensive events for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II (WWII), using historical memory as a tool to legitimize its Ukraine invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” and... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 29, the Republic of Georgia ceased participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) after the latter demanded new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners. Tbilisi’s exit from PACE threatens its eligibility for EU candidacy. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s need to supply its invasion forces in Ukraine, its rapid shift of trade away from Europe toward Asia due to sanctions, and slashed investments have put unprecedented strains on Russian railways. China will seek alternative routes for trade with Europe, using domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has developed a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), Oreshnik, based on its RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In November 2024, Russian armed forces conducted a combined missile strike on a Ukrainian military-industrial complex facility as a test for the missile. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond with its real capabilities. Russian military analysts push for negotiations by relying on Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: During his re-election as Belarus’s President, Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Poland that any attempt to annex western Ukraine would precipitate a conflict with Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka’s warnings are part of a broader obsession with Poland’s regional and European influence and support for the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly using the Cossack identity to justify its war in Ukraine, portraying them as liberators of Russian land. The Cossack’s use of Orthodox symbolism and historical narratives reinforce their role in neo-imperial mythmaking. The All-Russian Cossack Society highlights Cossack military... MORE

Executive Summary: Throughout his tenure, but especially since the start of his expanded war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has dramatically expanded the use of punitive psychiatry against his opponents and other dissenters, a practice that its victims have said made the Soviet Union,... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russia is increasingly involved in Southeast Asia’s nuclear energy market, most recently vis-a-vis the signing of a new memorandum on the development of nuclear energy between Rosatom and Vietnam Electricity.   Once established, nuclear energy cooperation creates long-term commitments associated with power plant maintenance,... MORE