Executive Summary: Russia’s State Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) newly published data on the military-industrial complex in Q1 2024 demonstrates limitations for arms production. The increase in some manufactured goods is in part due to Russia evading sanctions to continue importing electronic devices, demonstrating its dependence on... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of corruption, surprising Russians who have not seen a large-scale corruption charge since the start of the war in Ukraine. The arrest may have been meant as a warning from Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus is maneuvering to avoid being dragged directly into the hostilities in Ukraine, which has become Minsk’s main strategy since allowing Russian forces to launch the expanded invasion from Belarusian territory. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated: “Can we do it? No, we cannot”... MORE

Executive Summary: Leaders of Moldova’s Russophile parties recently launched a new political bloc at a congress in Moscow, heavily covered by Russian state media. The Kremlin aims to replace Moldova’s Western-oriented leadership with one loyal to Russia, ruling out the former model of Moldova balancing... MORE

Executive Summary: Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win or lose the war solely based on what happens at the front, rather, both Moscow and Kyiv seek to bring the war home to the other to gain an advantage. Each has attacked the other with bombs... MORE

Executive Summary: Tens of thousands of Georgians participated in a countrywide protest against the ruling Georgian Dream party’s reintroduction and attempt to pass the repressive and controversial “Transparency of Foreign Influence” law. Georgia’s Western partners have actively supported these protests and warned Georgian officials that... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian government passed a controversial law to strengthen mobilization as the military’s need to recruit soldiers grows in the face of an anticipated Russian offensive. As the war continues, Kyiv may have to turn to more extreme measures, such as mobilizing its... MORE

Executive Summary: The provision of US-made ATACMS and other Western long-range capabilities looks to enable Ukraine to strike military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea. The passage of the long-delayed US aid package has given Kyiv’s other Western partners momentum to commit more support to Ukraine as... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusians find themselves torn between two conflicting national agendas—one upheld by the state apparatus and the other championed by the opposition, many of whom are either exiled or imprisoned. The leaders of both political camps are exacerbating Belarus’s polarized political environment, alienating Belarusians... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 19, Armenia agreed to hand four contested villages back to Azerbaijan and continue talks on four more based on the 1991 Alma-Ata accord. Yerevan hailed this as the first step in improving bilateral talks, Western countries welcomed it as a step... MORE