Executive Summary: Sa'ad bin Atef al-Awlaki was recently named head of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). An effective leader, al-Awlaki is expected to further entrench al-Qaeda in Yemen, while also positioning himself and AQAP as especially important contenders for leading affiliates within al-Qaeda. Little... MORE

Executive Summary: Mazloum Abdi is the commander-in-chief of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and a major player in Syria’s new political environment. Abdi is expected to continue to use his support among the country’s Kurdish population and close relationship with the United States as leverage... MORE

Executive Summary: Saw Chit Thu is a warlord active in Karen State in southeastern Myanmar. Thu’s Karen Border Guard Force controls a stretch of the Thai–Myanmar border. Once an ally of the ruling junta, Thu appears to have switched sides after witnessing the rebels’ military... MORE

Executive Summary: Thadiyantavide Nazeer is a key Islamic extremist associated with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan and India’s homegrown jihadist group, Indian Mujahedeen (IM), and has been under arrest since 2013. Nazeer has managed to use his time in prison to radicalize others and was... MORE

Executive Summary: Captain Rahman Gul, the Baloch Liberation Army’s second-in-command, is thought to be behind the group’s turn toward sophisticated suicide attacks in recent years. A poet and former member of Pakistan’s security forces, Rahman Gul provides his group with both military training and effective... MORE

Executive Summary: Top al-Qaeda leader Dr. Aminul Haq has been in and out of Pakistani prisons over the years. Most recently, he was released in April 2025 and deported to Afghanistan after having been arrested in July 2024. Officially designated as a terrorist by the... MORE

Executive Summary: Corneille Nangaa Lobeluo leads the political-military Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). While Nangaa has not been involved in the June 27 peace agreement between Rwanda and the DRC brokered by the United States and Qatar, he... MORE

Executive Summary: On March 3, the separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) conducted its fourth attack using a female suicide bomber. This suggests that the trend is likely to continue, with the women acting as powerful symbols for the BLA in its claim to represent the... MORE

Executive Summary: On December 3, 2024, senior Pakistani Taliban (TTP) commander Shahid Umar was killed in Afghanistan, the most significant killing of a TTP commander under Afghan Taliban rule to date. The assassination was unusual in that Shahid Umar was killed in the home of... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 18, the infamous Rohingya militant leader Ataullah Abu Ammar Al Jununi was captured by Bangladeshi counterterrorist forces. Ataullah was formerly the head of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militia that played a key role in the 2017 Rohingya crisis... MORE