Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian signed, over a video conference, on November 9, an armistice agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Mediated by Russia between the two belligerents, this armistice dramatically changes the situation on the ground,... MORE

The Kremlin is presently redoubling its attention to Belarus, issuing public pronouncements in rapid succession. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) calls from abroad for a general strike on October 26 ultimately fell flat. And street demonstrations have been shrinking with each passing week... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The protest movement under way in Belarus appears to the world as yet another “color revolution” for “regime change.” The target this time is the autocracy of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, following the rigged presidential election on August 9... MORE

The protest movement under way in Belarus appears to the world as yet another “color revolution” for “regime change.” The target this time is the autocracy of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s, following the rigged presidential election in August and disproportionate use of force against protesters from... MORE

Moldova is holding its quadrennial presidential election on November 1, with a likely runoff on November 15 between the two leading contenders: the Socialist incumbent President Igor Dodon and challenger Maia Sandu, the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party in the parliamentary opposition (see... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has, in practice, achieved and maintained sovereignty in military affairs for Belarus vis-à-vis Russia (see below). These gains—for Belarus and neighboring... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia’s interests in Belarus at this stage may be categorized as status quo–oriented interests and those going beyond the status quo; the latter category clearly prevails in the political, institutional, and... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. Regime change via constitutional reform is Moscow’s chosen avenue toward its goal in Belarus: turning the country into a satellite of Russia, stopping short of outright incorporation (see Part One in EDM, October 15). At this stage, however,... MORE

Russia is not pursuing an “Anschluss” with Belarus. Rather, it aims to curtail Belarus’s external and internal sovereignty in the foreign policy, military, economic, and domestic institutional realms, stopping short of a political union of Russia and Belarus. The outcome would not amount to an... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. For now, the Belarusian authorities are holding out confidently against regime change on both fronts: against the domestic opposition and against Russia’s initial regime-change project. The latter could be seen lurking behind the thwarted presidential candidacies of Valery... MORE