Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Reach Historic Border Delimitation Agreement

Executive Summary:

• Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached a historic agreement on border delimitation on February 21, marking the end of decades-long disputes and military conflicts. The agreement also covers transport and water resource division, reinforcing regional stability.
• Officials in Bishkek and Dushanbe highlight the mutual concessions of the agreement. Kyrgyzstan views it as a diplomatic achievement, while Tajikistan sees it as a crucial step for national security, particularly amid tensions with Afghanistan.
• The border agreement’s completion will eliminate a major threat of instability in Central Asia and remove a sticking point between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

On February 21, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan reached a historic border delimitation agreement. This was announced in Bishkek, where the heads of the state security services of the two countries, Kamchybek Tashiyev of Kyrgyzstan and Saymumin Yatimov of Tajikistan, signed the protocol on border delimitation (Radio Azattyk, February 21). Additionally, Tashiyev and Yatimov signed two other agreements on the division of transport infrastructure and water resources. This effectively marked the end of decades-long border disputes and bloody military conflicts between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the effects of which have reverberated across Central Asia.

Almost a week later, on February 27, Tashiyev provided details of the agreements to the Kyrgyz parliament (Kaktus Media, February 27). He shed light on the outcomes of the years-long bilateral negotiations, which were secret due to their sensitive nature and potential criticism and blowback. Tashiyev listed all the disputed areas given up by each state and clarified the division of transport infrastructure and water resources. He stressed that both parties “made concessions,” since “the border issue should never be resolved in favor of only one side” (Radio Azattyk, February 27).

The agreements have now been approved by the joint parliament committee consisting of the Kyrgyz parliament members, and the full ratification is expected to take place within the next month, readying them for presidential signatures once ratified by the Kyrgyz parliament and are awaiting final signatures by their respective presidents (24.kg, February 27). This is expected to take place during the ongoing a state visit by Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Kyrgyzstan scheduled for March 12 and 13 (24.kg, March 11; AKIpress, March 12).

The signing is virtually guaranteed given the political support of Rahmon and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to seal the deal. The negotiations would not have been able to move forward without their blessing. Japarov has expressed his willingness to support the border delimitation deal and agree to concessions, “when resolving border disputes between two countries, it is impossible to take into account only one-sided interests” (Kaktus Media, January 28). The head of the State Committee for National Security in Tajikistan, Saimumin Yatimovk, attributed the agreement on border delimitation to the will of Rahmon and Japarov  (AKIpress, February 22).

The border delimitation agreement between these countries marks an important milestone for ensuring security and stability in Central Asia. In the last four years, relations between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have grown increasingly hostile with deadly military standoffs (see EDM, September 23, 2022). The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 left Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan facing a political and security dilemma over whether their new borders, stretching over 1,000 kilometers (approximately 621 miles), would adhere to 1991 maps or to 1924–1927 maps (Radio Azattyk, February 27). Border negotiations, however, came to a dead end in 2011 after agreeing on the delimitation of just 520 kilometers (approximately 323 miles), leaving more than half of the border’s status unresolved (Radio Azattyk, February 27).

Between 1991 and 2022, at least 150 clashes over disputed territory occurred between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (Kaktus Media, September 20, 2022). Up until 2021, the majority of these conflicts were between regular citizens and took place over access to pastureland and shared use of water resources on the local level (Cabar.asia, March 18, 2021; see EDM, December 12, 2022). The border guards and local authorities from both sides usually played a mediator role in such conflicts, ensuring they did not spin out of control and spread to other regions (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 4, 2021). The situation went awry in April 2021, when a local conflict grew into an interstate military conflict, which left 55 dead and 300 wounded from both sides (Asia-Plus, December 2, 2021).

In September 2022, a more deadly clash occurred as a local conflict grew into a military standoff. Attack drones, military helicopters, multiple rocket launch systems, tanks, and armored vehicles were used by the two states to batter each other, resulting in the death of military personnel and civilians alike (Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic, September 17, 2022; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan, September 18, 2022). Kyrgyzstan’s losses amounted to 59 dead and 198 wounded, the displacement of 136,770 people, and material damages worth $18.5 million (24.kg, September 19, 2022). Tajikistan reported 41 dead and 20 wounded (Radio Ozodi, September 19, 2022). The conflict ended with the borders closing and grim prospects of diplomatic engagement. 

After more than two and a half years of negotiations, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stand on the brink of a new era of political relations, leaving behind long-standing border disputes. Both have their reasons for pursuing this border agreement. For the Kyrgyz government, it is a major foreign policy, economic, and security milestone, which can be presented to the public as another promise no other previous government managed to deliver. Since the arrival of the current ruling tandem of Japarov and Tashiyev, Bishkek has prioritized completing the delimitation of its disputed borders with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In this regard, Kyrgyzstan signed a border delimitation agreement with Uzbekistan in January 2023 (Economist.kg, January 27, 2023). Signing a similar agreement with Tajikistan allows the political elites in Bishkek to position themselves as the exceptional regime that completed the delimitation of its borders with all its neighbors. The deal is also expected to boost bilateral trade, which has shrunk significantly since 2020 due to the conflicts and closing down the borders (Asia-Plus, February 25).

The border deal is important to the Tajik government for political and security reasons. Given the precarious security situation in neighboring Afghanistan and political tensions between Dushanbe and Kabul, completing a border deal with Kyrgyzstan is a welcome development (see Terrorism Monitor, October 31, 2023). It allows Dushanbe to check a major security challenge off its list and not worry about potential instability at multiple borders. The threat of attacks emanating from Afghanistan constantly looms over Tajikistan, and the most recent Taliban threats of invading and conquering it are further proof of that (Radio Azattyk, February 27). Politically, the border deal with Kyrgyzstan allows Rahmon to hand power over a stable country to his son, Rustam Emamoli, who is expected to succeed relatively soon. Leaving the country with disputed borders and a hostile neighbor would surely hurt his son’s prospects of a smooth power transition in the future.

The completion of the border agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will eliminate a major threat to instability in Central Asia. It holds the potential to end long-standing disputes on the local level and accelerate the economic and social development of border regions on both sides. It is not yet clear, however, whether some communities will be forced to relocate. To overcome such difficulties, both governments are expected to emphasize the prospect of long-term peace and stability.