Executive Summary: April 2024 marked the first anniversary of the Sudanese civil war, with the risk of Sudan re-emerging as a hub for jihadist terrorism in Africa on the rise. Some elements of the Sudanese Armed Forces under General al-Burhan are believed to have close... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has reconsidered its support for the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, throwing more weight behind the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Transitional Sovereignty Council. The move serves to align Moscow’s position more closely with that of Iran, seeks to dampen the SAF’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Once thought a vestige of the past, Eastern European mercenaries have returned to Africa under the leadership of Romanian Horațiu Potra. Potra runs a private military company (PMC) composed of other Romanian former members of the French Foreign Legion. Both Potra and his... MORE

Executive Summary: Mahamat Idriss Déby, Chad’s new president, has voiced interest in increasing cooperation with Moscow amid creeping Russian influence throughout the Sahel. Any move by the young president toward replacing French influence with a Russian presence will likely be met with strong resistance from... MORE

Executive Summary Islamic State’s (IS) spokesman hailed the group’s African “provinces” for their sustained expansion. IS has been able to continue to opportunistically consolidate its presence in Africa while global attention is concentrated elsewhere. While IS has focused on the Israel–Hamas conflict to some extent,... MORE

Executive Summary: A flood of foreign fighters to IS provinces in Africa is unlikely, but East Africa is more primed than West Africa to see an inflow of jihadists from around the world due to cultural differences and the harsh environment of the Sahel. After... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia uses anti-colonial narratives to build influence in Africa, leveraging historical grievances with Western imperialism and spreading disinformation. Putin claims that Africa is one of “Russia’s crucial and trustworthy partners” to unite them in a relationship based on a mutual goal to fight... MORE