Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE

Executive Summary: Founded in 1973, the Polisario Front remains a UN-recognized secular liberation movement seeking independence from Moroccan rule. U.S. legislators are considering labeling the Sahrawi independence movement a terrorist group, fueled by allegations of ties to Iran, Hezbollah, and global jihadist networks, despite a... MORE

Executive Summary: Corneille Nangaa Lobeluo leads the political-military Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). While Nangaa has not been involved in the June 27 peace agreement between Rwanda and the DRC brokered by the United States and Qatar, he... MORE

Executive Summary: The One Belt One Road initiative is evolving, with Chinese enterprises beginning to localize. In Algeria, this has led to increased exposure to the corruption and mismanagement that continue to plague the country’s economy. This is leading to tensions with Beijing’s pragmatic commitment... MORE

Executive Summary: The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) announced its departure from Mali on June 6. The PMC’s operations in Africa enabled Russia to establish a network of influence on the continent and secure access to natural resources. Late-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Wagner Group is being withdrawn from Mali after a three-and-a-half-year deployment with a mixed record of battlefield successes that have come at enormous civilian cost. Wagner’s replacement with the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps may signal a change in Kremlin tactics. Regardless... MORE

Executive Summary: ISWAP has launched an unprecedented wave of raids on Nigerian military supercamps, signaling a shift in momentum and a potential end to the long-standing stalemate in northeastern Nigeria. The group’s recent successes—especially the May 4 Buni Gari raid—highlight its growing operational capacity and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s plans to create a naval base on the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea have been upset by drone attacks launched on Port Sudan in early May. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claimed responsibility for the attack. The destruction of Port Sudan’s infrastructure... MORE