Executive Summary: Mahmoud Abdulrazzaq Hamza’s ascent from civilian to major general reflects Libya’s militia-centered state. He built the 444th Brigade into Tripoli’s most disciplined force, making himself indispensable to the GNU. Hamza is both the enforcer of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a potential rival. Dbeibah’s enforcer... MORE

Executive Summary: The presence of Russian military personnel in Mali has failed to prevent the expansion of the jihadist insurgency into the once-safe central and western regions of the country. Fissures have erupted in Mali’s ruling military junta over issues related to operational cooperation with... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE

Executive Summary: Founded in 1973, the Polisario Front remains a UN-recognized secular liberation movement seeking independence from Moroccan rule. U.S. legislators are considering labeling the Sahrawi independence movement a terrorist group, fueled by allegations of ties to Iran, Hezbollah, and global jihadist networks, despite a... MORE

Executive Summary: Corneille Nangaa Lobeluo leads the political-military Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). While Nangaa has not been involved in the June 27 peace agreement between Rwanda and the DRC brokered by the United States and Qatar, he... MORE

Executive Summary: The One Belt One Road initiative is evolving, with Chinese enterprises beginning to localize. In Algeria, this has led to increased exposure to the corruption and mismanagement that continue to plague the country’s economy. This is leading to tensions with Beijing’s pragmatic commitment... MORE