Executive Summary: Judicial cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in Nigeria confirm that citizens from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are active in both resource extraction and digital offshore laundering networks, connecting illicit resource economies and stablecoin settlement into value chains... MORE

Executive Summary Western Sahara remains an unresolved decolonization conflict, with Morocco controlling most of the territory since 1975 and the UN continuing to list it as a “non-self-governing” region. Brahim Ghali’s leadership of the Algeria-backed Polisario Front has been marked by authoritarianism, corruption, and repression,... MORE

Executive Summary AQIM under Abu Ubayda al-Anabi has become largely symbolic, eclipsed by the far more active JNIM; his possible death in recent Malian airstrikes would have little operational impact. AQIM’s decline reflects an aging leadership and loss of relevance within the jihadist movement, signaling... MORE

Executive Summary JNIM is expanding both south and north, conducting new attacks in Benin and Niger nearing the borders of Algeria and Nigeria—showing ambitions to control a trans-Sahelian corridor that mirrors historical Islamic polities. The group is consolidating control in central Mali, potentially preparing for... MORE

Executive Summary: Mahmoud Abdulrazzaq Hamza’s ascent from civilian to major general reflects Libya’s militia-centered state. He built the 444th Brigade into Tripoli’s most disciplined force, making himself indispensable to the GNU. Hamza is both the enforcer of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and a potential rival. Dbeibah’s enforcer... MORE

Executive Summary: The presence of Russian military personnel in Mali has failed to prevent the expansion of the jihadist insurgency into the once-safe central and western regions of the country. Fissures have erupted in Mali’s ruling military junta over issues related to operational cooperation with... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Niger claimed to have killed Boko Haram leader Bakura Doro in an August 22 drone strike, though this has been denied by the jihadist group. Islamic State–West Africa Province’s comparative strength in the Lake Chad region means that the potential death of Boko... MORE

Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE