Executive Summary: April 2024 marked the first anniversary of the Sudanese civil war, with the risk of Sudan re-emerging as a hub for jihadist terrorism in Africa on the rise. Some elements of the Sudanese Armed Forces under General al-Burhan are believed to have close... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has reconsidered its support for the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, throwing more weight behind the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Transitional Sovereignty Council. The move serves to align Moscow’s position more closely with that of Iran, seeks to dampen the SAF’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Once thought a vestige of the past, Eastern European mercenaries have returned to Africa under the leadership of Romanian Horațiu Potra. Potra runs a private military company (PMC) composed of other Romanian former members of the French Foreign Legion. Both Potra and his... MORE

Executive Summary: Mahamat Idriss Déby, Chad’s new president, has voiced interest in increasing cooperation with Moscow amid creeping Russian influence throughout the Sahel. Any move by the young president toward replacing French influence with a Russian presence will likely be met with strong resistance from... MORE

Executive Summary: The faction of Boko Haram once led by Abubakar Shekau is under the leadership of a commander named Bakura Doro, who has managed to win territory from rival jihadist group Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), which is generally understood to be... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian propagandists believe that new Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov’s ultimate loyalty to Putin and absence of corruption scandals puts him in a prime position to accomplish the tasks set before him. Putin’s move to reorganize his cabinet demonstrates a shift in the... MORE

Executive Summary Islamic State’s (IS) spokesman hailed the group’s African “provinces” for their sustained expansion. IS has been able to continue to opportunistically consolidate its presence in Africa while global attention is concentrated elsewhere. While IS has focused on the Israel–Hamas conflict to some extent,... MORE

Executive Summary GRU Colonel-General Yunus-Bek Bamatgireyevich Yevkurov has been tasked with taking over Russia’s operations in Africa from the Wagner Group. Proven and effective, he will be a formidable threat to Western interests in the region. Yevkurov is a Muslim Ingush from Russia’s North Caucasus... MORE

Executive Summary  Russia is actively expanding ties with Niger’s military junta to consolidate control over resource-rich assets and to push out Western influence. Moscow has now signed multiple agreements to provide security guarantees to Abdourahamane Tchiani and potentially take over the rights to several Nigerien... MORE

Executive Summary Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) aims to break its ongoing stalemate with Nigerian forces by deploying suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs). This represents the first time in five years that ISWAP has used SVBIEDs, with at least four bombings occurring... MORE