Executive Summary Islamic State’s (IS) spokesman hailed the group’s African “provinces” for their sustained expansion. IS has been able to continue to opportunistically consolidate its presence in Africa while global attention is concentrated elsewhere. While IS has focused on the Israel–Hamas conflict to some extent,... MORE

Executive Summary  Russia is actively expanding ties with Niger’s military junta to consolidate control over resource-rich assets and to push out Western influence. Moscow has now signed multiple agreements to provide security guarantees to Abdourahamane Tchiani and potentially take over the rights to several Nigerien... MORE

Executive Summary: A flood of foreign fighters to IS provinces in Africa is unlikely, but East Africa is more primed than West Africa to see an inflow of jihadists from around the world due to cultural differences and the harsh environment of the Sahel. After... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

On December 4, Niger announced the “strengthening of military cooperation” with Russia, the latest in a series of shifts toward the Russian sphere of influence by post-coup Sahelian states on the basis of counter-terrorism (Africa News, December 4). The announcement came after a Russian delegation... MORE

In March, the new al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) leader, Abu Obeida Youssef al-Aanabi, affirmed that Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) is “deviant,” emphasizing that AQIM was still at war with ISGS (France24.com, March 6). In August, there were emerging signs of a... MORE

On July 26, a military coup d’état ousted the President of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021. This resulted in the establishment of a military junta, or “Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie” (National Council for the Safeguarding of the... MORE

Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) continues to demonstrate its ability to combat its al-Qaeda-affiliated nemesis, Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), expanding and carrying out large-scale attacks in ways that outmatch JNIM. On October 3, for example, ISGS killed 29 Nigeriens in... MORE