United States National Security Advisor John Bolton’s visit to Minsk was preceded, accompanied and followed by an unprecedented number of commentaries in Belarus and Russia. For the most part, however, they constitute a self-contained phenomenon. That is, the respective publications hardly cast any light on... MORE

Several developments suggest Belarus is entering a new phase of its evolution as a sovereign country. First, the state-owned Belarusian Oil Company has hired the American lobbyist David Gencarelli to help ease sanctions against Belarus and obtain permission to purchase crude oil from the United... MORE

A bewildering array of divergent opinions on Belarus emanates from its closest neighbors. But for a relatively small and landlocked country committed to retaining and developing its statehood, it is vital to pay close attention to all those various viewpoints. Three concurrent recent examples highlight... MORE

Whenever Belarus’s vulnerability to Russian expansionism is discussed today, two points are raised most frequently: a) Vladimir Putin may be looking to extend his tenure in power beyond 2024 by taking over as president of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and b) Belarus... MORE

Following predictions by Russian military intelligence (GRU) that the West wants to separate Belarus from Russia and incorporate it into the Western orbit (see EDM, February 22), Moscow’s civilian external spy agency, the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), expressed its own concerns about the ongoing normalization... MORE

During his address to the 20th Plenary Session of Uzbekistan’s Senate, on June 21, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev expressed fears that the country’s manufacturers could face increasing difficulties accessing their traditional export markets. His suggested solution, to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU—the Russian-dominated regional trade... MORE

On July 17, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for the fifth time since the beginning of 2019. Earlier this year, they spoke in Minsk, Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), Bishkek and Sochi. This time, the venue for their meeting was the... MORE

The Union State Treaty between Russia and Belarus (signed in April 1997) declares, in Chapter II, Section II, Articles 17–18, that border security falls into a group of key bilateral issues that must be solved jointly. In practice, this gives Russia control over Belarus’s external... MORE

July 20, 2019, marks the 25th anniversary of Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s rule. Unlike most post-Soviet national leaders, he had no background in the Soviet nomenklatura, rising to the helm of power from a state farm director and defeating the acting–prime minister, Viachaslau Kebich, a... MORE

More than a year ago, the Russian “patriotic” newspaper Vzglyad shared a “discovery” extracted from a cross-tabulation of two public opinion surveys. One of them was by the French polling agency Institut Français d’Opinion Publique (IFOP) (RT, February 23, 2018) and the other by Pew... MORE