The Kremlin’s concerns about maintaining Belarus within its geopolitical sphere of influence have been mounting as of late. In particular, Moscow feels threatened by Minsk’s efforts to preserve its independence and autonomy in foreign policy, as well as by the latter’s ongoing normalization of relations... MORE

Recently, presidents Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin spent three days (February 13–15) together in Sochi, Russia. As a result, Lukashenka sacrificed his previously planned trip to the Munich Security Conference. Besides negotiating, both heads of state skied, and Lukashenka took part in Putin’s talks with... MORE

Two weeks ago (February 5, 2019), the Lithuanian intelligence community released its annual “National Threat Assessment” (Kam.lt, February 5). As in the past, this report asserts that the greatest intelligence threats to Vilnius come from Russia and Belarus. But for the first time, it adds... MORE

On February 13, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka of Belarus and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, met for the fourth time over the course of two months (President.gov.by, February 13; Belta, February 6). As widely predicted, the agenda of their negotiations revolved around months-long unresolved economic issues.... MORE

On January 17, the president of Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, paid a state visit to Belarus, as part of his four-country Eurasian tour. Besides Minsk, the Zimbabwean delegation landed in Moscow, Almaty and Baku (Kommersant.ru, January 15). The African continent is not a new destination for... MORE

Those taking a stand on Russian-Belarusian tensions around the so-called oil tax maneuver (see EDM, October 1, 2018; December 12, 2018; January 14, 15, 2019) fall into two main categories: 1) ones carefully trying to examine the core of the issue and 2) politicized speculators.... MORE

Perhaps no world leader in history has used television so massively to build his power at home and project his country’s influence abroad than Russian President Vladimir Putin. And perhaps no population—with the exception of the Russians themselves—has been more frequently accused of buying into... MORE

Russian-Belarusian tensions are still a major topic of discussion in the Belarusian media. Artyom Shraibman of Tut.by, notably predicts that neither side will yield to the other; therefore, Belarus will have to cope with slower economic growth and look for financial aid elsewhere (Tut.by, January... MORE

Like smoke with little fire, there has been a lot of anxiety surrounding the current Belarusian-Russian tensions (see EDM, January 15, 2019). Prolonged agitation, however, clouds judgment. At the end of the day, policymakers will benefit from a more sober reading of the subject in... MORE

Nikolai Statkevich, a leader of the opposition Belarusian National Congress, warned in late December 2018 that, if Moscow sends troops into Belarus in an effort to annex it, Belarusians would resist and ensure that their country would not be “a second Crimea” but rather “a... MORE