Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a “victory plan” to the Joe Biden administration and two US presidential candidates. The plan envisages arming Ukraine adequately for negotiating “peace through strength” with Moscow as well as strengthening economic sanctions on Russia. The military situation, damaged... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov published an op-ed outlining Minsk’s assessment of the current and prospective bilateral relations between Belarus and Lithuania, signaling a desire from Minsk to further engage with Vilnius in the future. In Vilnius, Ryzhenkov’s suggestions were received coldly,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by expanding the list of conditions that would justify such a measure. These updates are intended to serve as a warning to the West and legitimize... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is more openly highlighting the significant role Cossacks are taking in its war against Ukraine and within Russian society through the media and promoting cultural and militaristic Cossack events and organizations. The Kremlin’s transition to promoting the Cossack narrative versus its previous... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 12, a Russian Kh-22 cruise missile hit the unarmed civilian bulk carrier Aya bringing grain to Egypt, another example of a Russian attack where civilian vessels suffered collateral damage. The consequences of Russian missiles damaging civilian vessels, especially vessels exporting grain... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow officials and churchmen fear Chisinau will follow Kyiv and ban the Russian Orthodox Church in Moldova. Both they and pro-Moscow groups there are using concerns about that in their campaign against the re-election of Moldova’s pro-Western leader. Russian fears are not only... MORE

Executive Summary: Since early July, at least 115 political prisoners have been released from Belarusian prisons, raising important questions about the reasons for such decisions and how they might pave the way for a potential reopening of Belarus’s relations with the West. The Belarusian opposition... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has again threatened Western countries with nuclear retaliation, claiming that Ukraine’s use of Western weapons means direct participation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries in his war against Ukraine. Western states should respond to this the same way they... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: NATO’s outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, has called for maximizing military assistance to Ukraine to change Russia’s calculus and bring Moscow to the negotiating table. This scenario spells, however, a territorial compromise at Ukraine’s expense rather than victory in war. Stoltenberg... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin was propelled into power amid a series of deadly terrorist attacks in Russia in the 1990s. His tactics to combat this “war on terror” are being used today against Ukraine. In the 1990s, Russian propaganda and a boost to... MORE