Executive Summary: The Eastern Economic Forum, held in Vladivostok from September 3 to 6, demonstrated Moscow’s shortcomings in its commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, especially China. Stagnation rather than expansion is the trend in Russia-China economic interactions, as Chinese companies are... MORE

Executive Summary: In August, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that Ukrainian attack drones en route to Russia had entered Belarusian airspace, provoking a harsh response from Minsk. Official Minsk’s decision to withdraw troops from the border had demonstrated a willingness to act in ways that... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little initiative in combating Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, instead defining Russia’s defense as a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine has succeeded in altering the narrative of Russia’s dominance in the war, sending a shockwave into Russian society,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Orthodox Church of Ukraine faces a ban from Kyiv for its refusal to break completely with Moscow, because of the numerous continuing examples of its support and aid to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Similar moves against the Russian Orthodox... MORE

Executive Summary: Official media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has finally begun to comment on the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk oblast, which began on August 6. It gives Ukraine low odds of success, emphasizes Russia’s strength and successes elsewhere in the conflict,... MORE

Executive Summary: Western sanctions, heavy losses in Ukraine, and short-sighted Kremlin policies have put serious strain on the Russian economy, even if Moscow has managed to weather the storm in some sectors.  The Russian economy is grappling with significant structural issues, including dwindling economic reserves,... MORE

(Part One) (Part Two) Executive Summary: The second phase of the joint non-strategic nuclear exercises between Belarus and Russia sought to improve combat readiness and disentangle deployment tasks with tactical nuclear weapons in the event that hostilities in Ukraine spill out into Belarusian and/or Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast has highlighted the Kremlin’s lack of preparation for Ukrainian military advancements into Russian territory through its repositioning of troops and reliance on new conscripts. Moscow’s dysfunctional authoritarianism, demonstrated by Russian officials’ lack of action in fear... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian troops have entered Russian territory in the Kursk direction, and Russia has been unable to gain the upper hand. Some reports indicate that Ukraine’s success was made possible by the Russian General Staff ignoring intelligence reports. The Ukrainian offensive illustrates that Russian... MORE