Executive Summary: Moscow views Zelenskyy’s decree to devote more attention to ethnic Ukrainians inside Russia as a more serious attack on Russian statehood and identity than many in Ukraine and the West do. That perception will likely prompt Moscow to diminish the history of Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus is updating its National Security Concept and military doctrine amid increasing tensions in Eastern Europe brought on by Russia’s war against Ukraine Drafts of both documents emphasize that Minsk’s best course to preserving national security emerges from better relations with Europe, despite... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian sabotage of Russian railways has severely disrupted Moscow’s military logistics in supplying the frontlines. Russian authorities arrested 137 individuals suspected of railway sabotage between February 2022 and October 2023, charging some with acts of treason and terrorism. Some of the sabotage has... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s war against Ukraine has led to a surge in alcohol consumption in Russia, reaching 2.3 billion liters in 2023 and mirroring Soviet-era trends. The spike in alcoholism correlates with an increase in violent crime across Russia, with over 589,000 felonies in 2023,... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintain that the “special military operation” continues as planned, that Moscow is open to peace talks, and that “freezing” hostilities would be the best solution for both sides. Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasize the need for more investments in supporting Ukraine and securing... MORE

Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered Kyiv to devote more attention to Ukrainian “wedges” within the Russian Federation. Zelenskyy’s pronouncement has set off alarm bells in official Moscow, which is already worried about what such attention and contacts may mean to its control... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has expanded the state-registered Cossack movement within Russia and the illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. The Cossack institutions established in the Luhansk region aim to foster the militarization of the population, especially youth. Moscow has supported initiatives to establish a registered... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s industrial sector has become full dependent on China for machine tools and parts critical to arms manufacturing. Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Western sanctions, and the inability to fully realize import substitution efforts has exacerbated Russia’s dependence on China. That reality signals a... MORE

Executive Summary: Economic decline and growing security threats limit the effectiveness of Kremlin propagandists’ claims of a “bright future” for a “new Russia.” Moscow has been unable to adequately provide for public security, as Ukraine strikes Russian territory with increased frequency and returning veterans of... MORE