Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland’s accession to NATO one year ago marked a significant fracture in Russian-Finnish relations, which have declined precipitously as Finland pledges consistent support to Ukraine. Helsinki and Kyiv signed a recent defense agreement that includes long-term military and financial assistance to build on... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin propaganda maintain that the “special military operation” continues as planned, that Moscow is open to peace talks, and that “freezing” hostilities would be the best solution for both sides. Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasize the need for more investments in supporting Ukraine and securing... MORE

Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Africa in November to the busy border crossing between Russia... MORE

On October 8, the Balticconnector natural gas underwater pipeline running between Finland and Estonia was shut down due to significant damage on the portion of the pipeline within Finland’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to preliminary findings from the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, the... MORE

When Russian President Vladimir Putin began his ill-advised “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine in February 2022, one of his prime motivations was to prevent the former Soviet state from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Since then, NATO members, led by the United... MORE

In September 2023, all European Union member states bordering Russia introduced an entry ban on cars sporting Russian license plates. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were the first to implement the policy, albeit with Vilnius leaving open an exception for transit from the Russian exclave Kaliningrad... MORE

On August 13, al-Qaeda’s Al-Sahab Media issued a call on a Telegram channel for Muslims to "take revenge" on Denmark and Sweden for Quran-burning protests, which had been carried out for several months in both countries. The announcement was ominously titled, "The obligation to attack... MORE

Four months after Finland joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council and President Vladimir Putin’s closest confidant on security issues, announced that the West and Ukraine have launched a broad campaign to destabilize Karelia by promoting secessionist attitudes.... MORE

On July 9, Turkey freed the commanders of the well-known Ukrainian Azov regiment after months of hosting them as a part of a deal with Russia (Ukrinform, July 31). The fighters surrendered to Russian forces after weeks of brutal siege and resistance at the Azovstal... MORE