Executive Summary: Moscow is using drone incursions in Romania and Poland to test the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) readiness and resolve, seeking to highlight divisions over how to respond to this new form of aggression. Moscow’s simultaneous moves in Svalbard (Spitzbergen), a Norwegian archipelago... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Foreign Ministry’s premier journal, International Life, says the Baltic Sea region has become “a potential theater of military conflict,” one where there is no chance that regimes more amenable to Moscow will arise in the absence of a radical shift in... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO... MORE

Executive Summary: Sweden’s Security Service warns of an alarming shift in Russian espionage tactics, involving the recruitment of individuals suffering from substance addiction  for sabotage missions as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy targeting Sweden and Europe. Sweden’s recent accession to the North Atlantic... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has declared that Oslo strengthening its defenses on Svalbard is a violation of the Svalbard Treaty, implying that Russia views itself as a defender of that treaty and could take military action to defend it.  Nikolai Patrushev, a hardline Kremlin aide close... MORE

Executive Summary Russian hybrid attacks targeting critical undersea infrastructure (CUI), particularly fiber-optic cables, have surged in the Baltic and Arctic regions since 2021. These disruptions threaten essential communication channels and expose the vulnerabilities of Northern Europe’s infrastructure. Incidents in 2023 and 2024 involving Chinese vessels... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has more icebreakers than any other country but far fewer than it needs to ensure passage in the Eastern portions of the Northern Sea Route critical to its trade with China as well as to ensure that the Russian navy can continue... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary Russia remains the dominant player in the Arctic icebreaker sector, but this advantage may face challenges in the coming decade due to the collaborative ICE Pact involving the United States, Canada, and Finland. For Russia, icebreakers are essential for accessing Arctic... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway faces heightened security risks from Russia, including espionage attempts and incidents involving drones near critical infrastructure. In the intelligence’s assessment, Norway’s oil and gas facilities, essential to the European energy supply, are particularly vulnerable targets, necessitating strengthened... MORE

Executive Summary: Sweden contains at least 103 organizations that are part of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) united front system and exist across the country’s culture, business, politics, and education sectors. The organizations promote strengthening cultural, economic, and technological ties with the PRC and amplify... MORE