Executive Summary: The German Panzerbrigade 45 (Armored Brigade 45) was officially inaugurated in Lithuania on May 22, marking a step towards the permanent deployment of 5,000 German military personnel on NATO’s frontline by 2027. Roughly 3,200 foreign NATO troops—mainly the German-led Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup,... MORE

Executive Summary: The breakdown of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations in Istanbul highlights Moscow’s uncompromising demand to annex four Ukrainian regions. Despite lacking full control, Russia insists on its complete annexation, demonstrating its imperial pursuit of territorial expansion. Russia’s disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and international agreements signals... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia has released an embryonic Treaty of final settlement with Ukraine following their June 2 bilateral meeting in Istanbul. The territorial clauses require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s de jure annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian mainland provinces to the full extent... MORE

Executive Summary: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned against diplomatic engagement with Georgia’s ruling party without a renewed commitment to democratic norms on May 20, criticizing recent crackdowns on protests, unfair elections, and restrictive laws against non-governmental organizations. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have become vocal... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is increasing the production and use of Shahed-type kamikaze drones against Ukraine, constantly improving their effectiveness and ability to break through air defenses. In addition to simpler drones, Moscow is developing and testing more sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) featuring artificial intelligence... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-EU candidate Nicușor Dan secured Romania’s presidency in the election’s second round on May 18, defeating far-right leader George Simion amid fears Simion would shift Romania’s foreign policy and weaken ties with Ukraine and the European Union. The election highlighted Romania’s democratic resilience... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

Executive Summary: The lead-up to the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 demonstrates stark differences in negotiation strategies. Kyiv sent Russia a proposal beforehand, while Moscow maintained secrecy, diminishing hopes for substantive progress or meaningful compromise. Moscow’s unrealistic demands, including... MORE

Jamestown Senior Fellow Janusz Bugajski is the author of Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power. The book explores the nature and context of Warsaw’s determined efforts to shape NATO’s eastern policy, maintain a strong alliance with the United States, and build a robust, modern military capable of... MORE