Executive Summary: Belarus’s government outlawed opposition parties in anticipation of last week’s parliamentary election, contrasting previous elections that had offered a platform for opposition parties to spread their views. Oppositionists have primarily been forced into exile, which raises doubts about how effectively they can communicate... MORE

Executive Summary: New Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is playing a delicate balancing act of attempting to gain EU membership while reproaching the United States in public statements.  Kobakhidze’s strategy toward the West resembles the Kremlin’s approach: divide the West into two camps, Europe and... MORE

Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine.  Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the Kremlin had been promoting for many years, which aimed to erase Ukrainian history and identity.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian military-industrial complex has seen an increase in the output of military equipment in recent months despite a general downward trend in the country’s industrial sector. The increased productivity is in part due to the work of scientific institutions and universities that... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has long exploited its influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia to pressure Moldova not to turn away from Russia and join Western institutions such as the European Union. The Kremlin is once again using these restive Moldovan regions by raising the specter that... MORE

Executive Summary: Minsk is doubling down on military deterrence through asymmetrical means as Belarus finds itself in an increasingly complicated and entangled security situation due to the war in Ukraine. In recent years, Belarus’s military expenditures have fallen significantly lower than its neighbors’ budgets, giving... MORE

Executive Summary: Serbian President Alexander Vučić confirmed a new $300 million defense contract with Azerbaijan on February 6, following years of strategic agreements between the two countries. The new defense contract will give Azerbaijan a foothold in the Balkans, providing Baku with a path to... MORE

Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine... MORE