Southern Transitional Council Seeks Leverage with Declaration of Self-Rule Brian M. Perkins Saudi Arabia’s attempts to extricate itself from the war in Yemen became increasingly complicated as the Riyadh Agreement all but collapsed on April 25, when the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared a state... MORE

Executive Summary: Defeats, plummeting oil prices, and a global pandemic are forcing Saudi Arabia to rethink its involvement in Yemen. Ironically, the end of overt Saudi involvement in Yemen may help it achieve some of its aims as new alliances dilute Houthi control and minimize... MORE

The oil price fixing pact known as “OPEC+”—between the original oil-producing members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-members, primarily Russia—was agreed in December 2016 and implemented in 2017. By limiting oil production, OPEC+ helped keep global prices relatively high.... MORE

Attacks Demonstrate IS-CAP Evolution in Mozambique Brian M. Perkins Northern Mozambique has witnessed a significant escalation of operations by Islamic State Central Africa Province (IS-CAP) in recent weeks, with the group claiming two substantial attacks over a span of just three days. The attacks, which... MORE

Introduction The first months of 2020 witnessed significant diplomatic activity between the Gulf and the Maghreb. However, the emerging global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely affect some of these diplomatic dynamics. In January 2020, the Berlin conference on Libya offered an... MORE

On February 23, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released a video message from its prominent scholar Hamid al-Tamimi confirming the death of the group’s leader, Qasim al-Raymi, from a U.S. drone strike in Yemen (NewsYemen, February 23; al-Arabiya, February 23). In the same message,... MORE

Yemen’s Houthis have defied the forecasts of numerous analysts who predicted that their grip on northwest Yemen would erode. Rather than being weakened, Houthi and allied forces are stronger and better organized than at any point over the last two years. The Houthis’ recent offensives... MORE

Over the past few months, diplomatic activism around the Libyan civil war has intensified sharply. Two dynamics drove this process. First, the visible presence of Russian mercenaries fighting alongside the forces of Khalifa Haftar, the eastern-based leader of the Libyan National Army (literal Arabic translation... MORE

Oman’s Ability to Balance Competing Priorities Will Help Shape the Gulf in Coming Years Brian M. Perkins During the fraught aftermath of the airstrike that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, another key development with broad implications for the Middle East was unfolding. The death of... MORE

The Jeddah Agreement, which is the latest ceasefire deal regarding the war in Yemen, is not one that will see the Houthi rebels lay down their arms. Instead, the Saudi Arabia and UAE-sponsored agreement seeks to end the long-simmering fight that escalated sharply in August... MORE