Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing interprets recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a demonstration of deterrence aimed at supporters of Iran’s Islamic regime. In response, state media showcased the Yunjian-1000 bunker-busting missile, implying that the People’s Liberation Army has superior capabilities than those of the... MORE

Executive Summary: The German Panzerbrigade 45 (Armored Brigade 45) was officially inaugurated in Lithuania on May 22, marking a step towards the permanent deployment of 5,000 German military personnel on NATO’s frontline by 2027. Roughly 3,200 foreign NATO troops—mainly the German-led Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian Parliament condemned the U.S. MEGOBARI Act, labeling it as “hostile” and “factually flawed” after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill calling for sanctions on Georgian Dream leaders due to democratic backsliding. Georgian Dream resumed anti-U.S. rhetoric and disinformation campaigns... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on... MORE

Executive Summary: The united front operates abroad as a political machine, helping to get people elected by fielding candidates, mobilizing votes, and building power bases. Asian-Americans are growing in numbers yet remain key swing voters. Beijing’s role in shaping the political leanings of this demographic... MORE

Executive Summary: Two framework plans on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have been submitted by the United States and collectively by France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The quadripartite plan marks the first entry of Western European governments into these negotiations. While... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is using Russian ice hockey player Alexander Ovechkin’s record as the all-time National Hockey League–North America’s professional ice hockey league—scorer to promote nationalism, claiming the achievement for Russia. Russian President Putin has long used sports to symbolize Russian values and project... MORE

Executive Summary: A shift in tone and public sentiment in Russia suggests Moscow may be preparing for negotiations rather than continuing outright obstruction, but Russia continues aggressive military actions, undercutting its own signals of interest in a ceasefire or de-escalation. The issue of Crimea and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian media has misinterpreted the U.S. reductions of organizations such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) as signs of U.S. weakness rather than signals that Washington is prepared for genuine dialogue with Moscow. Kremlin-aligned figures celebrate the reduction as a blow to U.S.... MORE