Executive Summary: Moscow’s signaling of a willingness for peace negotiations should be considered as a tactical maneuver aimed at splitting the Western public opinion and undermining its resolve to help Ukraine. Putin’s tactical aim is to torpedo Western aid to Ukraine until a potential Trump... MORE

Executive Summary: The Biden administration's temporary pause on constructing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals has prompted Russian optimism about boosting its global LNG exports and exploiting internal divisions in the United States. Some Russian experts foresee opportunities in the potential for decreased US... MORE

Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE

In late December 2023, foreign investors for Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project voiced their intentions to pull out from the initiative (Kommersant.ru, December 25, 2023). The development project on the Gydan Peninsula was designed to transform Russia into a central global exporter of liquid natural gas... MORE

Moscow continues to claim that it has more than fully compensated for its lost access to oil and natural gas markets in the West due to sanctions by expanding sales to China, India, and other countries in the East (Politicheskiy Kaleidoskop, January 1). A closer... MORE

On October 15, after eight years in power, the Law and Justice (PiS) government in Poland lost its absolute parliamentary majority. While PiS technically won a plurality of the vote, it was unable to form a coalition government. On December 11, the Sejm (lower house... MORE

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and leader of the opposition-in-exile Svetlana Tikhanovskaya spent the previous week abroad trying to improve their standing with influential global powers, with Lukashenka visiting China and Tikhanovskaya traveling to the United States. A triangular model has emerged that characterizes the current... MORE

Over the past five years, Moscow has made progress in gaining international recognition for its expansive claims to large portions of the Arctic. As some Russian media outlets reported in early December, this has come in part because the United States has not ratified the... MORE

Tahawwur Hussain Rana, a Canadian businessman originally from Pakistan, was convicted in a US court in 2011. Rana was charged with providing material support to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan and for conspiring to attack the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten’s offices in Copenhagen and Aarhus. This followed... MORE

At the Grain From Ukraine forum in Kyiv on November 25, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine has arranged to receive additional air defense systems from Western partners to ensure the safety of vessels traveling along the grain corridor in the Black Sea. According to... MORE