Executive Summary: Tensions between Russia and the West in the Arctic have risen dramatically, as Moscow condemns both Washington’s claims on the Arctic and increased US military activity. The Kremlin is considering denouncing the 1990 Baker-Shevardnadze agreement and insisting on its own right to make... MORE

Executive Summary: New Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is playing a delicate balancing act of attempting to gain EU membership while reproaching the United States in public statements.  Kobakhidze’s strategy toward the West resembles the Kremlin’s approach: divide the West into two camps, Europe and... MORE

Executive Summary: Many analysts in the West have misunderstood the conflict in Ukraine, leading to the mishandling of aid to Ukraine.  Many Western analysts overlooked the historical myth-making that the Kremlin had been promoting for many years, which aimed to erase Ukrainian history and identity.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian military-industrial complex has seen an increase in the output of military equipment in recent months despite a general downward trend in the country’s industrial sector. The increased productivity is in part due to the work of scientific institutions and universities that... MORE

Executive Summary Globally, recent alleged Hamas-inspired attacks have lacked sophistication compared to past IS attacks or white nationalist shooters over the past decade. Even so, "lone wolves" motivated by news from Gaza pose an unpredictable threat. Recent examples of this include the several assaults that... MORE

Executive Summary: Civic groups are enhancing “social resilience” by forming self-training organizations focused on preparing for potential conflict impacts beyond just military engagement. These groups address a broad range of issues including civil defense, emergency rescue, disaster preparedness, cyberattack responses, and infrastructure maintenance. Civil society... MORE

Executive Summary: President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, nicknamed “President Wagner,” of the Central African Republic (CAR) welcomed the Wagner Group in 2018 but is now “in the process of diversifying its relations.” Wagner’s influence in the CAR has waned following the Prigozhin mutiny despite reassurances from Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s signaling of a willingness for peace negotiations should be considered as a tactical maneuver aimed at splitting the Western public opinion and undermining its resolve to help Ukraine. Putin’s tactical aim is to torpedo Western aid to Ukraine until a potential Trump... MORE

Executive Summary: The Biden administration's temporary pause on constructing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals has prompted Russian optimism about boosting its global LNG exports and exploiting internal divisions in the United States. Some Russian experts foresee opportunities in the potential for decreased US... MORE

Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE