Executive Summary: The Kremlin is developing and spreading sanction evasion tactics to create an alternative international economic system populated by rogue states. Russia’s burgeoning international economic order is characterized by ignoring Western intellectual property rights, circumventing sanctions, and the unconstrained trading of military goods. Türkiye,... MORE

Executive Summary: A shift in tone and public sentiment in Russia suggests Moscow may be preparing for negotiations rather than continuing outright obstruction, but Russia continues aggressive military actions, undercutting its own signals of interest in a ceasefire or de-escalation. The issue of Crimea and... MORE

Executive Summary: The five Central Asian countries have suffered a new brain drain since gaining independence in 1991, with a large share of their advanced students and best scholars moving to the West rather than to Russia, as had been the case in Soviet times.... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian media has misinterpreted the U.S. reductions of organizations such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) as signs of U.S. weakness rather than signals that Washington is prepared for genuine dialogue with Moscow. Kremlin-aligned figures celebrate the reduction as a blow to U.S.... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin continues to delay genuine peace talks with Ukraine—relying on distractions and temporary ceasefires to extract concessions while avoiding meaningful compromise—as the United States signals its readiness to move on from stalled peace efforts. European efforts to step up defense commitments and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has launched this year’s “Icebreaker of Knowledge” program, sending children to the North Pole aboard a nuclear-powered icebreaker as part of Moscow’s broader Arctic strategy. The expedition blends education with geopolitical messaging about Russia’s leadership in Arctic affairs as other states, including... MORE

Executive Summary: Since 2022, significant military construction has occurred in Asipovichy, Belarus, including new Iskander-M missile systems hangars, ammunition storage, and barracks at Military Unit 61732 (465th Missile Brigade). Satellite imagery confirms the near completion of facilities designed to support a new missile brigade with... MORE

Executive Summary:   Russia’s rehabilitation of an abandoned airbase in the Libyan desert offers an opportunity to create a reliable line of supply to Russian forces operating in West Africa.  A Russian military presence close to the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Chad could make... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s state-registered Cossack movement held its “Great Cossack Circle” meeting on February 25, highlighting Moscow’s growing investment in using the Cossacks as a state-managed substitute for authentic civil society. The “Great Cossack Circle” meeting emphasized Cossack military identity and pro-war sentiment, comparing Russia’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Nearly half of Russia’s regional leaders have launched programs to give payments of up to 150,000 rubles ($1,600) to underage girls who become pregnant and give birth as a way to reverse Russia’s demographic decline and win favor from the Kremlin. This policy... MORE