Executive Summary: After Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in March, Moscow sharply criticized Stockholm and others in the alliance for plans to improve the defenses of Gotland and other islands in the Baltic Sea. This criticism was clearly intended to dissuade them from... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast has highlighted the Kremlin’s lack of preparation for Ukrainian military advancements into Russian territory through its repositioning of troops and reliance on new conscripts. Moscow’s dysfunctional authoritarianism, demonstrated by Russian officials’ lack of action in fear... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian troops have entered Russian territory in the Kursk direction, and Russia has been unable to gain the upper hand. Some reports indicate that Ukraine’s success was made possible by the Russian General Staff ignoring intelligence reports. The Ukrainian offensive illustrates that Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement anticipates crisis responses in the event of another Russian aggression, building the “Ukrainian future force” during the war and after, as well as future security requirements in the Black Sea. US-Ukraine joint crisis response would cover both a repeat... MORE

Executive Summary: The US-Ukraine security agreement is the most comprehensive among recent bilateral agreements with Kyiv. Like the others, however, it is not legally binding but rather a statement of intentions or a memorandum of understanding. The agreement conveys uncertainty regarding Washington’s resolve to fully... MORE

Executive Summary: The largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War occurred on August 1 in Ankara and seemed to work in Moscow’s favor based on those prisoners swapped. The uneven status of those swapped confirmed the effectiveness of Moscow’s strategy... MORE

Executive Summary: This year, Ukraine has taken the initiative at sea and focused more strikes on Crimea and Russian positions in the Black Sea. With new tactics and weaponry, these attacks have become more difficult for the Russian military to counter. The end of 2023... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, the Ukrainian Navy has demonstrated its ability to counter the world’s supposed third-best military through innovative weaponry and unmanned naval drones. The use of unmanned systems, particularly drones, has emerged as a critical element in modern naval warfare, with both... MORE

Executive Summary: In the spring, Russia reported the discovery of an enormous new oil field in Antarctica.  Moscow told Western governments it had no plans to develop the field, even as Western observers warned that exploitation of the new deposits could threaten the Antarctic treaty... MORE

Executive Summary: Since February 2022, India and Russia have significantly expanded their military and defense cooperation, with New Delhi launching the first of two Russian-supplied advanced stealth frigates for the Indian Navy at the end of July. As Moscow struggles with defense exports due to... MORE