Executive Summary: Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev says the influx of immigrants threatens Russia’s social and political stability and, if allowed to continue, could call the country’s territorial integrity into question. Patrushev’s words are stoking xenophobic attitudes in Russia, powering a push for tighter... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s agenda in Moldova is an extension of Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its policy to re-expand into the intermediate zone between Russia and the West. The Kremlin’s top priority is to derail Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership by replacing the current government... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s State Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) newly published data on the military-industrial complex in Q1 2024 demonstrates limitations for arms production. The increase in some manufactured goods is in part due to Russia evading sanctions to continue importing electronic devices, demonstrating its dependence on... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of corruption, surprising Russians who have not seen a large-scale corruption charge since the start of the war in Ukraine. The arrest may have been meant as a warning from Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus is maneuvering to avoid being dragged directly into the hostilities in Ukraine, which has become Minsk’s main strategy since allowing Russian forces to launch the expanded invasion from Belarusian territory. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated: “Can we do it? No, we cannot”... MORE

Executive Summary: Leaders of Moldova’s Russophile parties recently launched a new political bloc at a congress in Moscow, heavily covered by Russian state media. The Kremlin aims to replace Moldova’s Western-oriented leadership with one loyal to Russia, ruling out the former model of Moldova balancing... MORE

Executive Summary: Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win or lose the war solely based on what happens at the front, rather, both Moscow and Kyiv seek to bring the war home to the other to gain an advantage. Each has attacked the other with bombs... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian government passed a controversial law to strengthen mobilization as the military’s need to recruit soldiers grows in the face of an anticipated Russian offensive. As the war continues, Kyiv may have to turn to more extreme measures, such as mobilizing its... MORE

Executive Summary: The provision of US-made ATACMS and other Western long-range capabilities looks to enable Ukraine to strike military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea. The passage of the long-delayed US aid package has given Kyiv’s other Western partners momentum to commit more support to Ukraine as... MORE

Executive Summary: Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider the West as its primary military adversary, supported by Russian political analysts shifting their focus... MORE