Executive Summary: Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Community, now the largest Russian nationalist organization, is rapidly evolving from an ideological group supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Orthodox Church into a criminal band ready to engage in violence against the Kremlin’s opponents. The Kremlin has orchestrated... MORE

Executive Summary: At Moscow’s 80th Victory Day parade, President Xi Jinping positioned the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a key anti-fascist power alongside Russia, using a selective World War II narrative to legitimize the PRC’s present-day international role and deepen symbolic ties with the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin celebrated veterans on Victory Day, portraying World War II and Russia’s war against Ukraine both as fights against Nazism to justify the full-scale invasion, boost public support, and consolidate veterans’ pro-regime sentiment. Russian President Vladimir Putin created the “Time of Heroes”... MORE

Executive Summary: The leaders of Russia’s federal subjects are handling three issues—abortion, alcohol sales, and migrant groups—so differently that people are traveling to different regions to take advantage, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin homogenizing the Russian legal field. The Kremlin could likely put an end... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 7, Azerbaijan announced that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev would not attend Moscow’s May 9 Victory Day parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. Azerbaijani media attributed the visit cancellation to a series of negative developments... MORE

Executive Summary: Talks in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine on May 16 occurred under low expectations, resulting in high diplomatic posturing despite the discussions resulting in minimal progress Western leaders have pushed for a ceasefire, prompting renewed engagement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 16, in Istanbul, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met for the first time in more than three years of war to discuss a ceasefire. The Kremlin rejected this Western-backed initiative, countered with an old set of ceasefire preconditions, and introduced more insurmountable... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has escalated its campaign against Russian energy targets, striking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Kropotkinskaia oil pumping station (OPS) in February. The CPC pipeline is Kazakhstan’s primary export route, handling 80 percent of its crude oil, and the strike on the Kropotkinskaia... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is unwittingly contributing to the rise of Islamism in Dagestan by failing to address social and economic problems and by handing over the region to siloviki who view all protest there as Islamist. The problems in Dagestan and elsewhere in the North... MORE