Executive Summary: Berlin and Astana have been working to increase oil exports from Kazakhstan since the end of 2022 after Western sanctions forced Germany to explore alternatives to Russian energy sources. Increasing Kazakh oil exports seems unlikely as shipments would pass through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline... MORE

Executive Summary: The United States is looking to Latin America to send Soviet-era and Russian weapons to Ukraine in exchange for modern American-made analogs. Many Latin American countries are hesitant to agree to this request because they do not want to break their treaties with... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence across the Sahel and is now aiming to establish footholds throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow fears that Armenia may demand that Russia pull its border guards from Yerevan’s international airport and close its military base at Gyumri, following Armenia’s suspension of its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Kremlin worries about losing influence in Armenia.... MORE

Executive Summary Belarus’s new military doctrine appears to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about the role of tactical nukes, lower-ranking officials hint at provisions for preemptive nuclear strikes against... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia is experiencing the effects of Russia’s soft power through the presence of pro-Russian organizations, media outlets, and parties that assert closer ties to Moscow will settle disagreements between the two countries. Recent polls have indicated that a significant segment of Georgian society... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts that participants of the “special military operation” should be viewed as the new elite of Russia and participate in the governing the country to sustain support from those on the front. The Kremlin will be forced to show... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is consolidating the Wagner Group’s operations in Libya under the direct control of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and relying on the African Corps under the purview of Russia’s deputy defense minister. Field Marshal... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is being forced to postpone and effectively cancel some of its highest-priority transportation projects in the Russian North due to its war against Ukraine. These moves limit Russia’s ability to extract and export natural resources and support the Northern Sea Route, even... MORE