Executive Summary: Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth. Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved... MORE

Executive Summary: On October 26, Georgia will hold parliamentary elections that will determine whether the country falls further into Russia’s clutches or turns toward closer relations with the West. The ruling Georgian Dream party accuses Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the... MORE

Executive Summary: The ruling Georgian Dream has proposed that if it wins the upcoming elections, it would declare Orthodox Christianity as the state religion in Georgia. The move looks to gain the support of the Georgian Orthodox Church, one of the most influential institutions in... MORE

Executive Summary: Baku is currently turning away from the West toward Russia and Iran, angry at Western countries for their support of Armenia and criticism of human rights issues in Azerbaijan, and hopeful that Moscow and Tehran will help achieve its geo-economic and geopolitical goals.... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 31, the Russian border guards deployed to Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport formally ceased operations. The following day, the airport became the sole responsibility of units from the Armenian Border Guard. This withdrawal only applies to the airport. Russian border guards will... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea in 2014 and even more since he launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has sought to develop ties with non-Russian groups in Russia on the principle that “the enemy of my enemy is... MORE

Executive Summary: Armenia is making moves to distance itself from Russia and reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and, allegedly, Iran. The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening... MORE

Executive Summary: A new, more radical, and more deadly threat to Russian control in the North Caucasus is emerging. The new movement is based on Islamist ideas rather than concerns about ethnic hierarchies or anger about corruption and situated primarily in Dagestan rather than Chechnya.... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence. For now, Yerevan has... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Russian officials in Abkhazia are lobbying for the adoption of laws that will allow Russian citizens to buy real estate in the breakaway republic, where, in the 1990s, with the help of the Russian army, separatists carried out the ethnic cleansing of the... MORE